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Inflation, Home Price Swings, and Wealth Distribution

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By Rick Tobin

Between January 2020 and October 2021, the M1 money supply (cash or cash-like instruments) quickly rose from $4 trillion up to $20 trillion in just 22 months. Money velocity, or money creation speed, is the true root cause of rapidly declining purchasing power and skyrocketing inflation. The more money in circulation, the less purchasing power for the dollar.

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In January 2024, Americans were paying $213 per month more to purchase the same goods and services one year earlier in 2023 because of rising inflation and the declining purchasing power of the dollar. As compared with two years ago in 2022, Americans are paying $605 more per month. Sadly, we’re now paying $1,019 more PER MONTH ($12,228 more per year) today for the same goods and services we purchased three years ago in 2021.

Shipping, trucking, and other transportation costs are quickly rising amid geopolitical tensions. Historically, increasing transportation and energy costs are a root cause of inflation trends. Don’t be surprised if inflation rates and interest rates are both higher later this year instead of lower.

Home Value-to-Income Ratio in the U.S.

The U.S. home value-to-income ratio is calculated by dividing the $342,000 median home value by the $74,580 median household home, according to Economy Vision. If home prices had grown at the same rate as income since 2000, the median U.S. home would cost nearly $294,000, or 31% to 32% lower than today’s prices.

U.S. households need an average income of $166,600 to afford a home, but the median household income is $74,580. The lowest home price-to-income ratios in large metropolitan regions are in Pittsburgh (3.2x), Buffalo (3.5),and Cleveland (3.5), while many California regions are near 10 to 20x. Some smaller suburban or rural regions in Southern Illinois and other Midwest regions are closer to 1.5 to 1.8 for home price-to-income ratios.

Increasing Distressed Residential and Commercial Mortgage Numbers

Millions of Distressed Residential Mortgages

The federal government keeps extending the millions of distressed FHA and VA loans, or offering discounted loan modifications, partly so that they don’t push the national home listing supply skyward and reduce home prices at the same time.

The C-19 foreclosure or forbearance moratoriums for millions of FHA and VA borrowers began back in the fall of 2020. As a result, many of these home borrowers haven’t made a mortgage payment for more than three years.

The FHA forbearance moratoriums for FHA borrowers expired on November 30, 2023 while the VA forbearance moratoriums were extended until May 31, 2024. At some point, these loans will need to be brought back current, sold, or foreclosed.

In the previous housing crash that was especially bad during 2008 to 2012, only about 2% (or 1 in 50 mortgages) of all residential loans were delinquent. Yet, these distressed home mortgages became future lower value comps for the nearby homes while driving their prices downward too, sadly.

If and when the national home listing supply numbers rapidly increase this year, it will eventually have a negative impact on home price trends because it’s all supply-and-demand economics at the true core. When supply of a product or asset rises and exceeds buyer demand, then prices tend to fall (and vice versa).

Concerning Commercial Mortgage Trends

An estimated 44% of office buildings nationwide with mortgages in place are claimed to be upside-down with negative equity here near the start of 2024. Some office buildings are selling for as low as $9 per square foot, not $900/sq. Ft. By the end of 2024, the underwater office building numbers may be well over 50% and the overall underwater or upside-down numbers for all commercial property types may be somewhere within the 20% to 25% range.

Physical and Online Retail Store Numbers

  • In Q3 2023, the amount of U.S. retail space available for lease plunged to an all-time low since the CoStar commercial real estate group started tracking back in 2007.
  • The previous seven years in a row (2017 – 2023) shattered all-time retail space closings per square foot in U.S. history.
  • Through just September 2023, 73 million square feet of retail space closed in 2023, as per Coresight.
  • 140 million square feet of retail space has been demolished in the last decade, according to CoStar.
  • Top 6 online sales percentages in 2023: 1. Amazon (37.6%); 2. Walmart (6.4%); 3. Apple (3.6%); 4. eBay (3%); and 5. Target and Home Depot (a tie at 1.9% each), per Statista.
  • 10.4% of total annual U.S. retail sales were online in 2017;
  • 12.2% of total annual retail sales were online in 2018;
  • 13.8% of total annual retail sales were online in 2019;
  • 17.8% of total annual retail sales were ecommerce in 2020;
  • 18.9% of total annual retail sales were ecommerce in 2021; &
  • 18.9% of total retail sales were online in 2022, per Statista.
  • The full 2023 online year results weren’t published yet.

Record-High Car Payments

Some new monthly car payments are reaching $3,000 per month, while average new car payments are near $730 to $750 per month. Additionally, many monthly car insurance payments are reaching $400 to $500 per month in cities like Detroit and Philadelphia. How much are these car owners paying in gas and maintenance as well?

The national average cost for car insurance rose a whopping +26% from last year, according to Bankrate.

The most expensive cities for car insurance are:

Detroit – $5,687
Philadelphia – $4,753
Miami – $4,213
Tampa – $4,078
Las Vegas – $3,626

The cheapest cities are:

Seattle – $1,759
Portland – $1,976
Minneapolis – $2,044
Boston – $2,094
Washington D.C. – $2,430

The average car loan today is valued at 125% LTV (loan-to-value) for the typical car on the road with a loan with an average negative equity balance of -$6,000. This is partly because so many car buyers are purchasing cars with no money down and adding their registration, licensing, taxes, and warranty fees on top of it before driving off of the car lot. New cars usually drop in value about 20% in the very first year of purchase.

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Inflationary or Deflationary Economic Cycles

Inflation has been described as an increase in the general level of prices of a certain product in a specific type of currency. Inflation can be measured by taking a “basket of goods,” and then comparing them at different periods of time while adjusting the changes on an annualized basis.

General inflation measures the value of a currency within a certain nation’s borders, and refers to the rise in the general level of prices. Currency devaluation measures the value of currency fluctuations between different nations. Some related terms associated with inflation are as follows:

* Deflation is a rise in the purchasing power of money, and a corresponding lowering of prices for goods and services. The Fed doesn’t like this economic period of time and will probably cut short term rates to offset it.

* Disinflation refers to the slowing rate of inflation. The Fed may like this type of economic time period, and may stop raising rates at this point in the economic cycle.

* Reflation is the period of time when inflation begins after a long period of deflation. Depending upon the severity of inflation, the Fed may pause the rate hikes or gradually begin rate hikes.

* Hyperinflation is rapid inflation without any tendency toward equilibrium. It is inflation which compounds and produces even more inflation. It is when inflation is much greater than consumers’ demand for goods and services. The Fed, and the rest of America, do not typically like this economic period, so they may enact a series of significant rate hikes to slow inflation.

The Wealth Distribution Imbalance

Wealth distribution across the U.S. has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer people since 1990. Overall, the top 10% of wealthiest Americans own more than the bottom 90% combined, with more than $95 trillion in wealth for the top 10%.

Here in 2024, the share of wealth held by the richest 0.1% is near its peak with a minimum of $38 million in wealth in just 131,000 households.

With $20 trillion in wealth, the top 0.1% earn an average of $3.3 million in income each year. The greatest share of the wealth owned by the top 0.1% is held in corporate equities or stocks and in mutual funds, which make up over one-third of their total assets.

Households in the lower-middle and middle classes as found in the 50% to 90% income and asset brackets are claimed to have a minimum of $165,000 in wealth held primarily in real estate and followed by pension and retirement benefits.

Unless you’re in the Top 0.1%, the odds are quite high that the bulk of your wealth is concentrated in real estate if you’re fortunate enough to own at least one property today. In our next meeting, we will discuss how to find discounted real estate and other investments and how insurance and estate planning can help protect your assets for you and your family.

Extreme Rate Swings, Steady Home Gains

Between 2000 and 2023, the median U.S. home appreciated approximately 10.63% per year. By comparison, California homes rose 12.55% per year between 2000 and 2023.

Doubling Value Forecasts: The Rule of 72 is an investment formula used to estimate how long it may take for an asset to double in value using a projected annual rate of return (72/7 or 7% = 10+years).

A home purchased using the national average annual gain of 10.63% would double in value in just over 6.77 years if purchased this year (72/10.63 = 6.77 years). A California home would double in just 5.74 years (72/12.55) if these same average annual appreciation gains continued.

Home prices tend to go skyward following a Fed pivot when they start slashing rates. When will the Federal Reserve start cutting rates again? Let’s take a look at their calendar for 2024 two-day meeting dates: Jan. 30-31 (no rate change); March 19-20; April 30- May 1; June 11-12; July 30-31; Sept. 17-18; Nov. 6-7; & Dec. 17-18.

Inflation severely damages the purchasing power of the dollar while usually boosting real estate values. Because it’s more likely than not that inflation will continue rising above historical average trends, then real estate may be one of your best hedges against inflation as your wealth compounds and increases as well.

Rates may be lower, the same, or higher by the end of 2024, partly due to our volatile inflation movement and weakening dollar. However, there’s a tremendous upside for real estate investors if you’re willing to stay focused on the opportunities and not let the negative news scare you away.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

How to Minimize Risks and Maximize Gains

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By Rick Tobin

Between January 2020 and present day, U.S. home prices rose a staggering +47%, per S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. Are these price trends likely to keep rising at the same pace or not?

How is it possible that the reported published inflation rates are declining while home prices and home unaffordability rates are increasing at the same time?

Will home prices decrease, flatten, or increase later here in 2024? The answer partly depends on whether the home listing inventory supply rapidly increases or decreases. It’s all supply and demand economics at the true core.

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Let’s take a closer look at some eye-opening housing, inflation, and jobs numbers:

  • Before the Fed started raising rates in 2022, a $2,000 monthly housing budget would have bought a home costing more than $400,000. Today, a $2,000 monthly household budget gets $295,000 or less.
  • Existing home sales between 1998 and 2007 averaged 6 million per year. Through October 2023, the annual home selling pace was closer to 3.79 million housing units.
  • Over the past 50 years (1973 – 2023), home prices rose by nearly 1,300% as compared with a 610% gain in the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
  • The inflation-adjusted hourly work wage has increased by just a measly 1% over the past 50 years (not an annual 1% increase, but just a 1% total gain over and above 1973’s wages in 2023 at a 1/50th of 1% increase per year average).
  • By comparison, the inflation-adjusted median home price has gained 100% over the past 50 years. As a result, real home prices have increased by more than 100 times (or 100x) the real wage gains.

Sources: CPI, Federal Reserve, and ZeroHedge

To be able to afford the median-priced home of $433,100 in late 2023, a household needed an annual income of roughly $166,600. However, the median household nationwide earns just $74,580, which is only 45% of the recommended amount.

By comparison, the median-priced home in California reached almost $860,000 in recent months. This is almost double the national median-priced home average.

As it relates to the lock-in effect, it does not matter too much if the homeowner’s mortgage rate is 6%, 4%, or 2% if they lose their job and main source of income. Foreclosures will likely rapidly increase this year as the true unemployment numbers skyrocket, sadly. It then creates a downward spiral for the neighboring homeowners as future foreclosures become the latest sales comps while creating more upside-down homes with negative equity. Later, more underwater homeowners will walk away if they have no equity to protect.

The latest house payment ($62,165) as a percentage of household income ($94,964) number ratio is 65.46% here in California ($62,165/$94,964 = 65.46%).

Approximately 60% of all homes owned in America are owned by people over the age of 50. Average home prices across the nation have increased 45%+ since the pandemic declaration back in March 2020. At some point, more older Americans will likely list their homes for sale to take their gains and to downsize at the same time while pushing the home listing inventory numbers higher.

If you have cash or access to third-party loans or equity partners, there will be some incredible buying opportunities this year and beyond.

Water Damage and Extreme Weather Swings

It’s getting increasingly difficult to obtain insurance for both owner-occupied and rental properties. A mortgaged residential or commercial real estate property is required to have sufficient amounts of insurance coverage, or the lender may consider it to be the equivalent of a mortgage default that would later lead to a foreclosure filing.

The #1 cause of damage to homes is usually excess water from rainstorms, heavy snowfall, floods, leaky roofs, or broken pipes. Fewer than 2% of Californians have flood insurance coverage for their homes. The horrific flooding in San Diego last month will likely cause significant losses for residential and commercial real estate properties as well as push insurance premiums skywards for local San Diego County and statewide residents.

Florida is #1 for the highest annual homeowners insurance premiums that are near $9,270. How much worse will it get after hurricane season begins?

Please make sure that you have multiple insurance coverage options from your preferred insurance broker just in case you receive a cancellation notice in your mailbox in the near future.

Commercial Real Estate

Upwards of 44% of office buildings nationwide with a mortgage are now claimed to be upside-down with negative equity here near the start of 2024. Later this year, the negative equity numbers should keep rising. How will this potentially impact banks and the overall US economy later this year and next?

CNBC recently published this article entilted vacant office spaces on the rise, with over 100 million square feet available in Manhattan.

This 100 million square foot number is equivalent to 40 vacant Empire State Buildings. Occupancy rates for office buildings in that region continue to remain under 50%. How many of these empty offices will later be converted to residential units?

Blackstone, the world’s largest owner of commercial real estate and a spinoff of BlackRock, is walking away from some of their distressed and upside-down commercial properties.

Year-over-year office building price percentage losses (’22 – ’23)
1. San Francisco: -58.9%
2. Chicago: -48.3%
3. San Jose: -48.0%
4. Philadelphia: -45.1%
5. Los Angeles: -44.6%
6. Orange County, CA: -38.4%
7. Dallas/Ft. Worth: -37.6%
8. New York: -37.3%
9. Austin: -31.5%
10. Boston: -24.2%

Source: Green Street News (data for all office sales, not just for Blackstone deals)

There are another one million new rentals coming to market by 2025 over and above the 1.2 million new apartment units that were built over the past three years, according to REjournals. Will this drive down rental prices even more due to excess supply?

Banks

Between 2017 and 2023, more than 10,000 bank branches closed nationwide. From January 1, 2023 through October 19, 2023, banks fired 20,000 employees. Yet, an additional 42,000 bank employees were let go in the final 72 days of the year between October 20th and December 31st for a grand total of 62,000 bank layoffs in 2023. Will these numbers accelerate in 2024?

Next month on March 11th, the Federal Reserve is terminating their “safety net” for many banks that’s called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). After the financial system almost collapsed last year in March 2023, it was the BTFP bailout programs that possibly prevented bank runs after many banks became technically insolvent. On March 12th, private money may become quite popular as a backup lending solution because fewer banks may be able to lend to even their most creditworthy clients.

The banking dominoes continue to fall…

The push towards the “Basel III Endgame” banking regulation, which requires banks with assets over $100 billion to set aside more capital or cash reserves while driving down their ability to lend, is almost here.

Basel is a reference to the city in Switzerland where the world’s superbank, named the Bank for International Settlements, is located. They govern all central banks worldwide, including the Federal Reserve. We may see an increasing number of bank closures and mergers this year and next, partly due to these new regulations.

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China’s Defaulting Real Estate Marketplace

Here comes the next potential Asian Contagion event and derivatives debt tsunami from Evergrande (3333.HK stock symbol – they were once China’s largest real estate developer) as I’ve been writing about for several years. Country Garden, also ranked as high as the #1 largest real estate developer in China, is having their own serious financial challenges as well. It could force many Chinese investors to sell off their US Treasury holdings, which, in turn, may drive the 10-year Treasury yield and corresponding 30-year fixed mortgage rates higher.

January 2024 was somewhat reminiscent of the Russian financial crisis (stocks, bonds, and currency implosions) that spread to Asia (aka Asian Contagion) and South America back in 1998. At the same time, the derivatives investments held by Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) were so volatile and at risk that they ran out of money while almost taking down the world’s entire financial system at the same time.

Several large financial institutions were asked by the Federal Reserve to put upwards of $100 million each to save LTCM’s derivatives bets so that the financial system wouldn’t collapse. The only investment firms that refused to bail out LTCM in 1998 were Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. Ten years later in 2008, they were the first big investment firms to implode as the Credit Crisis (primarily related to a frozen global derivatives market) worsened and were not bailed out either, ironically.

Never forget that the global bond and currency markets absolutely dwarf all stock markets combined. Get your popcorn ready and keep a close eye on financial institutions in China, Russia, Germany (Deutsche Bank, especially), and here in the U.S.

Jobs Layoffs and Declining Cash Reserves

Job layoffs accelerated +136% in just one month between January 2024 and December 2023. Cash reserves held at banks are near all-time record lows right now. A recent survey found that 60% of the U.S. population has $500 or less in their checking accounts. Just 12% of the U.S. population has $2,001 dollars or more in their checking accounts, as per GoBankingRates.

Ballooning Corporate Debt

The U.S. corporate loan maturity amounts that ballooned or will be ballooning or coming all due and payable by the following year-end dates:

  • December 2023: $230 billion
  • December 2024: $790 billion
  • December 2025: $1.070 trillion
  • December 2026: $1.105 trillion
  • December 2027: $1.055 trillion
  • December 2028: $1.240 trillion
  • December 2029: $802 billion

Many corporations will be forced to refinance their debt at much higher rates while increasing their costs and decreasing their profits. As a result, more corporations will likely look to reduce their monthly costs, which may include increased job layoffs, sadly.

Between October 2019 and April 2023, there were more jobs created for foreign-born workers than for native American workers, as per ZeroHedge. My guess is that the foreign worker percentages have increased at an even faster pace between May 2023 and January 2024. In 2023, there were more illegal immigrant crossings in the USA each month than the total number of monthly births for US residents.

Government and Consumer Debt

According to Michael Snyder’s article entitled The United States Has The Biggest Government In The History Of The World By A Very Wide Margin, let’s take a look at some of these published numbers:

  • Upwards of 3 million people work for the federal government.
  • The federal government spent 6.13 trillion dollars in 2023. This figure is larger than the GDP of every nation on the planet except for the U.S. and China.
  • More than 70 million Americans are on Social Security.
  • More than 65 million Americans are on Medicare.
  • More than 81 million Americans are on Medicaid.
  • More than 41 million Americans are on food stamps.

Consumer and government spending trends: US households racked up $17.29 trillion in record debt last year (mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, etc.). The federal US debt crossed another milestone recently, surpassing $34 trillion. By comparison in 2009, US debt was only $10.6 trillion. Between 1980 and 1990, the total overall federal debt only increased by $2 trillion.

We’ve borrowed:
* $1 trillion over the last 3 months
* $2 trillion over the last 6 months
* $11 trillion over the last 4 years

In the previous housing crash here in California (2007 to 2012), average home prices fell to a still all-time state record amount of -41.7% from peak to trough.

  • Nearly 30% of Americans are behind on one or more debt payments.
  • 56 million Americans had unpaid credit card balances for more than a year.
  • 40% of student loan borrowers have still not made a payment even after the recent October 1, 2023 student loan payment restart date after three years of C-19 forbearance.
  • Just one late payment can drop a FICO credit score between 80 and 180 points.

Out of Chaos Comes Opportunity

Inflation is likely to remain elevated here in 2024. Historically, the ownership of real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation while rising at a similar pace or higher each year.

With consumer debts at all-time record highs and credit card APR rates hovering between 28% and 30%+ and early paycheck loans reaching as high as 330% to 400% APR rates, it’s very important to limit your spending, set aside as much cash as possible if this may be an option for you, and keep your eyes focused on potential real estate bargains in your region.

During volatile economic time periods like seen back during the Great Depression (1929 – 1939), the Savings and Loan Crisis (‘80s and ‘90s), and the Credit Crisis or Great Financial Recession (2007 to 2012), there were incredible buying opportunities for discounted real estate. Please stay focused on your goals and targets rather than on the temporary obstacles.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

How to Overcome Declining Purchasing Power with Real Estate

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By Rick Tobin

Homeowners are 40 times wealthier than tenants. Real estate is an exceptional hedge against inflation because home values tend to rise at least as high as the published inflation rates.

If you’re fortunate to own real estate over years or decades, it’s very likely to be the main reason for the bulk of your family’s overall net worth. Conversely, tenants will be losing money over time as their rents continue to rise right alongside skyrocketing inflation rates.

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Americans in 2023 need to earn more than $11,400 to be able to enjoy the same standard of living as they did in 2021 thanks to the rapidly declining value of our dollar, according to CBS News.

If your earnings rose by 34% from January 2020 to October 2023, the purchasing power of your labor kept pace with higher costs. All of us who aren’t earning 34% more since January 2020 have lost ground. It now takes more hours of work to buy groceries and everything else. To offset declining purchase power, real estate ownership may be your best option.

The purchasing power of $100,000 in income in January 2020 is only $66,000 in purchasing power today (34% reduction). To keep pace with the rapidly falling purchasing power of the dollar, $100,000 in income in January 2020 would need to rise to $134,000 in income today or your investments would need to appreciate at the same rate to offset your dollar losses.

Rising Prices for Goods, Services, and Assets

Between 2008 and the 1st quarter of 2023, let’s review some of the “official” government published data for consumer goods, services, and assets from sources such as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

  • Hospital services: +99.8%
  • College tuition: +64.4%
  • Child care: +62.1%
  • Medical care: +57.2%
  • Food and drink: +52.8%
  • Housing: 48.3%

Again, these are the published numbers that are likely underreported and much lower than the true inflated price changes. To me, it seems like all prices are significantly higher here in the 4th quarter of 2023 as compared to the 1st quarter this year. If so, the actual price gains may be significantly higher as we head into 2024.

All-Time Record High California Home Prices

In spite of mortgage rates more than tripling over the past year or so, housing prices statewide in California have never been higher for owners, new buyers, and tenants.

Shocking Los Angeles Home Price Swings

The median home sales price in Los Angeles County hit a record high of $914,640 in September 2023.By comparison, the median Los Angeles County home price was $318,075 (12/08).

Near the peak of the previous housing bubble and near the official start of the Credit Crisis or Great Financial Recession in late 2008, the median home sale price was almost $600,000 lower in Los Angeles County than median-priced homes in the same region. How is this not shocking?

Today, Los Angeles is ranked as the #2 most expensive U.S. city and the #6 most expensive worldwide city for residents to live in, according to KTLA News.

Many California homeowners have never been wealthier due to rapidly increasing home equity gains while many tenants have never been poorer due to their all-time record high rental payments, sadly.

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Expensive Coastal Regions and Inland Moves

Because some of the most expensive real estate prices in the world are located in California coastal counties like San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Francisco (both a city and county name), more residents are moving inland to places like Riverside or San Bernardino counties in Southern California or out of state to Arizona, Nevada, or Texas.

Buyer demand still exceeds the available home supply while pushing home prices higher, especially in the Riverside County region, which is much more affordable than the near $840,000 statewide home price average for California.

Riverside County Home Spotlight Region

The median sale price of a single-family home in Riverside County was a new all-time record high of $620,960 in October 2023, up from $600,000 in September, with a rise from $599,990 in October 2022, according to the California Association of Realtors.

  • Lake Elsinore: $575,000 ($175,000 below the Temecula average)
  • Canyon Lake: $662,000
  • Menifee: $547,500
  • Murrieta: $657,500
  • Temecula: $750,000
  • Corona: $759,000

Adding Value to Real Estate

Owners or interested buyers who are thinking about purchasing a new one-to-four unit property to boost their wealth and/or monthly income with rental units have several options these days which may include:

  • First-time owner-occupied homes
  • A move-up from a smaller to a larger home
  • A short-term or long-term rental
  • Adding tiny homes or ADU (Accessory Dwelling Unit) to a residential property site to increase monthly cash flow.
  • Remodeling an existing home with a new kitchen, bathroom, or bedroom.
  • Building a brand new home, duplex, triplex, or fourplex from the ground up.

One-Time Close Construction Loans

I’ve worked on numerous individual home construction loans and large residential development tracts over the past few decades. Yet, I’ve never seen a better, easier, and more affordable home construction loan option for owners who are interested in building a brand new “dream home” for their family.

Generally, a person may need two or three separate loans to build a new home that may include a land purchase loan (40% to 50% LTV ranges are more the norm), construction loan, and a final 30-year takeout or permanent loan to pay off the construction loan.

With a One-Time Close Construction Loan, the borrower applicant qualifies for one loan to buy the land, build the home, and keep the same loan for up to 30 years all within one loan closing option. This way, there’s one credit report pull, one loan underwriting and approval process, one down payment unless it’s a VA loan (up to 100% financing) or a very low down payment requirement for FHA-insured and conventional loans (up to 95% to 96.5% LTV).

Let’s review below some of the loan product highlights offered by one of my main lending partners:

Conventional Loans

* Available on 15-and 30-year fixed conventional, high balance and 7- and 10-year ARM options
* Eligible on primary, second or vacation home, and investment property purchases and rate/term refinances
* Loan amounts up to the conforming loan limits
* 700+ FICO, up to 95% LTV
* 11-month maximum build period with 1-month modification period
* Interest-only monthly payments during the build period

VA Loans

* Available on 30-year fixed loans
* Loans up to $4M
* Eligible on primary home purchases and cash-out refinances
* 580+ FICO, up to 100% LTV
* 11-month maximum build period with 1-month modification period (build period is deducted from the loan term)
* No monthly payments during the build period

Rule of 72 and Power of Leverage

Real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation over the past 100 years. In some economic boom years, home values may double in value every 2, 3, 5, 7, or 10 years. With minimal down payments, the true annual cash-on-cash returns are much higher than most people realize.

The Rule of 72 is an investment formula used to estimate how long it may take for an asset to double in value using a projected annual rate of return. If homes in your region have increased 7% per year over the past several years and home appreciation continues at the same pace in the future, then it may take 10+ years for your new home to double in value using the Rule of 72 (72/7 or 7% = 10+ years).

Most first-time home buyers use high mortgage leverage within a 0% to 6% down payment range (6% down is average).
Let’s use 20% down payment for an estimated cash-on-cash return for an owner-occupied or investment property buyer. At a 7% annual appreciation rate average, the cash-on-cash return is actually 5 times 7% (20% down – 1/5th; 80% bank – 4/5th) for a total 35% annual cash-on-cash return.

Time and inflation can be two great allies to eliminate the mortgage debt as your home rises in value thanks to the power of leverage and inflation.

Is the housing market positive, negative, or neutral? It depends on the home region, the regional home listing inventory supply, and the price range is perhaps the safest answer to give.

Why doesn’t it feel like a slow home sales market to first-time buyers? Let’s take a closer look at the national home sales numbers for October 2023 as provided by the National Association of Realtors:

  • 66% of homes for sale were sold in less than a month.
  • 62% of surveyed real estate professionals said that their first-time home buyers had to put in four or more offers before closing on a home.
  • The median home sales price for an existing home was $391,800, up 3.4% compared to a year ago.

Invest in Your Future Today

The average homeowner at retirement age has 83% of their net worth tied up in their primary home. 60%+ of Americans surveyed say that they live paycheck to paycheck, so saving is challenging. Middle-income parents may spend an average of $310,605 by the time a child born in 2015 turns 17 years old in 2032, per Brookings Institute. What about college?

The average Social Security benefit paid out in 2022 was $1,657/mo. ($19,884/yr.). Median savings rate (excluding retirement funds) by age: $3,240 (under 35); $4,710 (35-44); $5,620 (45-54); and $6,400 (55-64), per a Federal Reserve survey. The median retirement savings for all families is $87,000, according to the 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances.

There’s good debt (mortgages) and bad debt (credit cards at 28% to 33% rates, etc.). Mortgages help create long-term wealth, especially after they are paid off in full. To shorten the time to pay off a mortgage, you might pay biweekly and add some principal to reduce 10 to 15+ years in payments while the home asset potentially doubles or triples in value.

Our dollar’s purchasing power is on track to continue falling in value. If so, the prices paid for consumer goods, services, and assets like real estate may keep rising as well. As a result, equity gains for real estate ownership may increase while giving you more options to pay off debt and build a brighter future.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

Equity Rich, Cash Poor

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Image from Pixabay

By Rick Tobin

As of February 2022, there was an estimated $10 trillion dollars’ worth of tappable equity in residential properties that owners can access by way of cash-out loans, home equity lines of credit, and/or reverse mortgages with no required monthly payments. The average US homeowner who retires has approximately 83% of their net worth tied up in home equity and pays their monthly expenses from just 17% of their overall net worth found in savings, checking, and/ or pension accounts.

The typical homeowner has the bulk of their individual or family net worth tied up in the equity in their primary residence where they live. It’s estimated that close to 37% of all US households live in residential properties (one-to-four units) that are free and clear with no mortgage debt. This number is approximately 5.5% higher than 10 years ago.

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For those Americans who are fortunate to own their own home, the massive equity gains over the past several years have likely more than offset their rising monthly living expenses. This is especially true in states like California where the median price home statewide reached close to $850,000 in March 2022. Many homeowners gained more than $120,000 in new equity gains in 12 months or less.

Rising Inflation

Inflation severely damages the purchasing power of the dollar as we’ve all seen firsthand in recent years. Many consumer product prices have risen as much as 10% to 50% over the past year alone, sadly.

Image from Pixabay

Historically, real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation as property values tend to rise right alongside or above published inflation rate numbers like a buoy with a rising tide. In March 2022, the published annual inflation rate reached 8.5%. This was the highest inflation rate in more than 40 years dating back to December 1981.

Between December 1980 and December 1981, the Federal Reserve raised the US Prime Rate to as high as 21.5% for the most creditworthy borrowers and 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovered in the 16% to 17%+ range in order to combat or quash those high inflation rates. Here in 2022, the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates significantly yet again like back in the early 1980s in order to slow down these incredibly high inflation rates that are actually much higher than the published rates.

Falling Cash Supply

Some financial planners or wealth advisors suggest that their clients maintain at least a three month supply of “emergency” cash reserves for their clients. More than half of Americans (or 51%) surveyed had less than a three months’ worth of expense supply, according to Bankrate’s July 2021 Emergency Savings Survey. This total included 1 in 4 respondents (or 25%) who said that they had no emergency cash fund supply at all.

Image from Pixabay

A more recent January 2022 survey conducted by Bankrate found that some 56% of Americans did not have $1,000 in cash savings available to access for emergency expenses. As a result of minimal cash reserves available for many people, they are likely to use credit cards, take out personal or mortgage loans, or borrow funds from family or friends to cover their daily expenses.

Lower cash reserves also adversely affect people who are planning to lease a home. For tenants, they may need enough cash to cover moving expenses and to put up the first and last months’ rent and/or security deposit money.

For home buyer prospects, they may need at least 3% to 5%+ of the proposed purchase price to qualify for the conforming or FHA loans. With the median home nationwide priced near $400,000 in the 1st quarter of 2022, many buyers will need somewhere between $12,000 and $20,000 for the down payment and additional funds for closing costs unless the seller or other family members are gifting them some of the funds.

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With mortgage rates continuing to rise in recent times, the bigger challenge for many home buyer prospects is coming up with enough of a cash down payment rather than qualifying for a monthly mortgage payment that’s a few hundred dollars more per month today than several months ago.

Homeownership Trends

Let’s review some eye-opening numbers associated with housing trends across the nation as per the US Census Bureau and Statista:

  • The national homeownership rate is 64.8%.
  • There are over 79 million owner-occupied homes in the US as per Statista.
  • Approximately 65% of homes are owner-occupied and 35% are rented or vacant.
  • Real estate prices have increased at least 73% nationwide since 2000.
  • An estimated one-third (33%) of all home buyers are first-time buyers.

Mortgage Debt vs. Unsecured Debt

Debt can be like an anchor holding us back. Yet, some debt is better than others like seen with mortgage debt secured by an appreciating property. Other forms of debt such as unsecured credit cards with annual rates and fees that may be within the 20% to 30%+ range can be especially bad. The higher the rate for the debt, the longer it will take to pay it off unless the borrower later files for bankruptcy protection.

Image from Pixabay

The average American has close to $6,200 in outstanding or unpaid credit card balances, according to data released by the Federal Reserve and Bankrate. Many borrowers pay the minimum monthly payment. If so, it may take them on average more than 30 years to pay off the credit card balance in full.

With a 30-year fixed rate mortgage that may be priced near 3% to 7% (or 20%+ lower than some credit cards), the mortgage principal or loan amount decreases as the years go by and the property value is more likely than not to rise as much as the annual published inflation rate. If so, the home value may increase $50,000, $100,000, $200,000, or $300,000+ per year, depending upon the region and latest economic trends.

If inflation rates continue at a sky-high rate, then real estate investments may still be your best option as the purchasing power of the dollar rapidly falls. The future equity gains from real estate will then allow you to pay off consumer debts like credit cards, school loans, and car loans at a faster pace while your net worth compounds and grows.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has a diversified background in both the real estate and securities fields for the past 30+ years. He has held seven (7) different real estate and securities brokerage licenses to date, and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. Rick has an extensive background in the financing of residential and commercial properties around the U.S with debt, equity, and mezzanine money. His funding sources have included banks, life insurance companies, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), equity funds, and foreign money sources. You can visit Rick Tobin at RealLoans.com for more details.

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

Homeowners’ Financial Solutions for 2021 and Beyond

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Photo by Olya Kobruseva from Pexels

By Rick Tobin

Between 2006 and 2014 during the depths of the Credit Crisis, there were 10 million Americans who lost their home to foreclosure over this 8-year span. Within just a few months in 2020 (March to May), we’ve seen almost 50% of that 10 million foreclosure number with at least 4.7 million mortgages delinquencies. For most Americans, the vast majority of their family’s overall net worth is tied directly to the equity in their home rather than in any stocks or other investments.

The good news is that national existing home sales climbed an all-time record +20.7% month-over-month increase between May and June 2020 partly due to fixed mortgage rates repeatedly reaching all-time record lows. In spite of record unemployment claims filings, home prices are still at or near all-time record highs in most major metropolitan regions.
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Photo by Burak K from Pexels

In spite of one of the most chaotic years ever in world history, national home equity grew $1 trillion in value due to the combination of historic all-time low 30-year fixed rates and unusually low home listing inventory. For example, there were 1.42 million existing homes on the market nationwide at the end of October 2020, which was a 19.8% drop compared with one year earlier. Some analysts claim that the median home price nationwide increased by a 16% year-over-year growth during the same October 2019 to October 2020 time range. In many metropolitan regions, listed homes are selling within one to two weeks.
The primary difference between now and the last negative economic time period is that more homeowners today have much more equity in their homes than back in the 2008 to 2012 years. As such, any distressed homeowners who need to sell should be able to do it rather quickly due to the strong buyer demand and record low mortgage rates.

Homeowners, Tenants, and the CARES Act

Back on March 27, 2020, the CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) was passed by Congress as a response to the worsening US and global economy due to the fallout from the ongoing virus pandemic designation. Subsequent to the passage of the CARES Act, governors in states like California and elsewhere signed mandates or legal orders that attempted to prohibit lenders from foreclosure on delinquent homeowners and landlords from evicting tenants through the end of December 2020 or January 2021 (dates subject to change).
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Photo by Joshua Miranda from Pexels

Additionally, the CDC (Center for Disease Control) issued their own guidelines that referenced the possibility of civil fines and/or criminal prosecutions for any landlord who attempted to evict a delinquent tenant before the end of December 2020 partly due to claims that it may increase potential health risks for the general public. In US history, this may be the very first time that the CDC has claimed authority to directly affect landlords and tenants. In recent times, these foreclosure or eviction moratoriums have been extended to January 2021 or beyond. At a later date, these moratoriums may continue to be extended, but few people are fairly certain at this point.

Risks and Financial Opportunities

Let’s take a look below at the potential risks, market changes, and financial solutions for homeowners, landlords, tenants, and real estate professionals due to Covid-19’s impact on the economy: * Adverse Market Fees: As of December 1st, 2020, the largest secondary market investors, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are scheduled to assess a 0.50% “adverse market fee” to at least all refinance (and possibly purchase) loans that are designated as “conforming” fixed mortgage rates. Generally, these are some of the lowest 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates in the nation for the most creditworthy borrowers with usually very solid FICO credit scores. This market fee adjustment may increase the overall 30-year fixed rate by anywhere between .125% and .25%, depending upon the lender. * Non-conforming mortgage loans: Borrowers may consider easier qualifying non-conforming loans that aren’t purchased in the secondary markets by Fannie or Freddie which include: FHA (FICO credit score allowances in the 500 range), VA, Non-QM (Qualified Mortgage), and Private Money that may allow much higher debt-to-income ratio allowances and/or no formal income documentation requirements such as with Stated Income products (bank statements or profit and loss statements in lieu of W2s or tax returns). * Forbearance agreements: The lender agrees to postpone or delay their foreclosure actions with the delinquent borrower. Sometimes, these foreclosure postponements may last months or years.
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Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

* Deferment: The lender agrees with the borrower’s request to delay or defer their delinquent payments until a later date. In some cases, the late payments and penalties are added years later when the loan may become all due and payable. * Loan modification: The lender or mortgage loan service company agrees to reduce the existing interest rate and/or monthly payment amount so that the mortgage is more affordable as a way to avoid foreclosure. * Loan repayment plan: Both the lender and borrower mutually agree to add unpaid delinquent payments and late fees to the existing mortgage which may slightly increase their monthly payments or increase the loan term to give the borrower more time. * Reinstatement: After the borrower and lender agree to modify the monthly payments to avoid foreclosure, the loan is removed from foreclosure status and reinstated in “good standing.” * Seller-financed sales: If the homeowner needs a quick sale to a new buyer who can effectively take over his monthly mortgage payments and give the seller some much needed cash, the seller may consider creating some type of wraparound mortgage {i.e., contract for deed or all-inclusive trust deed (AITD)} or “subject-to” property transfer in which the buyer receives the deed to the property that is “subject-to” the existing mortgage still secured by the property. * Short sale: If and when the mortgage debt is greater than the current market value for the property (aka “upside-down” mortgage), the homeowner may consider contacting an experienced local Realtor who can help negotiate a discounted mortgage payoff with the lender when they find a qualified new buyer.
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Image by Tumisu from Pixabay

* “Cash for Keys”: During the depths of the last major national foreclosure crisis between 2009 and 2013 especially, lenders were offering delinquent homeowners upwards of several thousand to $25,000 + to vacate the home while not damaging it or removing appliances. Quite often, the homeowner hadn’t made a mortgage payment for months or years up until this “Cash for Keys” offer. For many lenders, this cash payment to struggling homeowners was considered more affordable for the lender than fighting the homeowner for months or years longer. * Bankruptcy: For homeowners who are days or weeks away from losing their home at the final lender auction sale, they may consider filing Chapter 7 (complete liquidation of most debts) or Chapter 13 bankruptcy (a longer term workout payment plan) either on their own with online companies for just a few hundred dollars or with the assistance of an experienced bankruptcy attorney. The bankruptcy filing could delay the foreclosure auction date by weeks, months, or longer. Please seek quality legal assistance first. * Foreclosures: Please note that the typical foreclosure date timeline is close to four months from the start to finish. In California (a trust deed or non-judicial foreclosure state), the lender may first issue some warning letters to the delinquent mortgage borrower up to several months. The lender will then file a Notice of Default to start the foreclosure process. Ninety (90) days later, the lender will file a Notice of Trustee’s Sale while advertising one day a week in a local legal newspaper for three consecutive weeks. If the loan hasn’t been cured or paid with some new installment or workout plan, the lender could hold the final Trustee’s Sale (or auction) approximately 120 days (4 months) after the Notice of Default was filed.
In other states that are considered judicial foreclosure states, the foreclosure timelines may be similar or much longer, depending upon the caseload for nearby local courtrooms.

Focus on Opportunities, Not Obstacles

opportunities
It’s your ongoing perceptions of these negative financial, health, and overall national and global situations that may best determine whether you succeed or not. “Truth” is just your personal perspectives based upon life experiences. In the well-known Five Stages Of Grief description about emotional reactions to traumatic and painful experiences which was first written by Elizabeth Kübler-Ross and David Kessler about the fear of death, the five stages are described as: ● Denial ● Anger ● Bargaining ● Depression ● Acceptance
The faster that you get through the first four states of grief, the faster that you will get to the “Acceptance” stage and your focusing on the potential opportunities and solutions.
What we tend to focus on in life is usually what we end up with later because our minds are like giant magnets, for better or worse. Please keep your eyes on your personal goals because the solutions will appear sooner rather than later if you’re willing to focus with 20/20-like perfect vision. For many real estate investors, they will find incredible buying opportunities in 2021 and beyond if they keep a positive mindset.
Rick-Tobin-Professional-Pic-sharper

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has a diversified background in both the real estate and securities fields for the past 30+ years. He has held seven (7) different real estate and securities brokerage licenses to date, and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. Rick has an extensive background in the financing of residential and commercial properties around the U.S with debt, equity, and mezzanine money. His funding sources have included banks, life insurance companies, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), equity funds, and foreign money sources. You can visit Rick Tobin at RealLoans.com for more details.

Breaking News: This Week’s Historic Stock Surge Calms Investors

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By Stephanie Mojica

After weeks of bad news, there is plenty of good news for real estate investors and realtors alike. On Wednesday, March 25, U.S. President Donald J. Trump as well as Senate and Congressional leaders reached an agreement on a $2 trillion stimulus package to hopefully stave off any recession due to the myriad problems caused by COVID-19.

economy-3972328_1280The day before, Dow had its best day since 1933, according to The Los Angeles Times. Dow’s index increased by 11.4%.

Standard & Poor leaped 9.4%, which was the third-best day for gains since the 1940s. Because Standard & Poor is particularly important for 401(k)s, which impact an estimated 50% of American workers, according to CNBC.

Nasdaq jumped 8.1% as well.

According to Forbes, the unprecedented stimulus package will do the following:

• send $1,200 checks to most Americans;
• increase unemployment insurance benefits;
• set up a $500 billion loan program for small businesses in trouble;
• provide $130 billion for hospitals;
• inject $150 billion into state and local stimulus funds;
• loan $50 billion to affected airlines; and
• create a $500 billion fund for industries, cities, and states.

wall-street-4847634_1280Yesterday’s latest statement from President Trump indicates he set Easter as an optimistic date for businesses to resume to full operation. These positive signs from Wall Street and the executive branch are increasing investor confidence in both the stock and real estate markets.

U.S. Market Plunges, Realty411 Experts: “Recession On the Way…”

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by Stephanie Mojica

The Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to nearly zero on Sunday, March 15, sending real estate investors and the world at large into even more panic over the very real financial threats of the coronavirus aka COVID-19.

This of course drew the overall question of, is the United States now in a recession?

The opinions of experts interviewed by Realty411 on Monday, March 16, varied. However, the opinions all held one common thread — the economy of the United States and the world at large is in danger.

Gena Lofton, a Los Angeles-based investor, speaker, and author, said that she believes a recession officially began this first quarter of 2020, even before the interest rates were slashed.

“It’s highly likely that we will have low to no economic growth for the next two quarters, which is the definition of a recession,” Lofton said.

However, she noted that there are two more important questions for concerned parties to ask:

·      When will it end?

·      Will it be a “depression” or a recession?

“The answers to the above questions are dependent upon the severity (i.e., the depth) [of this economic downturn]; the length (i.e., the number of quarters); and the of fatalities as a result of the coronavirus — all of which will result in financial disasters for a large part of society,” Lofton said.

“It is highly probable that this will spill into 2021, as the money supply and supply chains have been broken for too long. For example, when an economy is chocked for this long without air (money) it is nearly impossible for it NOT to have a recession.

“The example I like to use is it’s like holding your breath underwater, if one does that for too long, they will either die or be unable to function when they do get air.”

According to Lofton, it is important for all investors and other concerned parties to deeply understand four factors:

·      the money supply;

·      the credit/bond market;

·      supply chains; and

·      economics in general

Bruce Norris, president of the Riverside, Calif.-based Norris Group and an active investor, hard money lender, and real estate educator with over 35 years of experience, said a recession is on its way.

“I think it’s [the Federal Reserve’s decision is] a reaction to realizing there’s a U.S. recession coming for sure,” Norris said. “A global one is likely as well.”

In response to a question about how serious COVID-19 is to the global economy in general, Norris said: “It’s [COVID-19 is] the biggest Black Swan event of our lifetime.”

According to Norris, the current situation is worse than the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008 — but it could be of a shorter duration.

However, “depending on how high unemployment goes, this could impact renters’ ability to make rent,” Norris added.

Lloyd Segal, director of LAREIC (Los Angeles Real Estate Investor Club) — the largest real estate investing group in Los Angeles — also said a recession is on its way. However, he urged people not to panic.

“The best way to protect your real estate portfolio is not to sell!” Segal said. “No panic selling. Hold off on any activity for the next six months until the market stabilizes.

Sam Sadat, founder of Sam’s Real Estate Club in Los Angeles, Calif., feels that the recession for the economy is a recession, but not specifically for real estate investors. “As long as rates stay this low, we will have buyers.”

While panic selling is to be avoided, Sadat says this economic hurdle is the perfect time to re-adjust your portfolio and sell off the not-so-good properties to focus on the long-term winners.

“Save your money and get as much access to capital as you can. Look for bargains and invest in long term small multi-units,” Sadat adds.

It’s important for Realty411 readers to be aware that fortunes can be lost or made during economic turmoil, such as recessions.

“I’m sharing with my members and students that whenever the market goes through sudden upheavals, prices inevitably tumble,” says Segal, adding: “It happened after 9/11 and after SARS, H1N1, and Ebola. But it takes months, not weeks. So, get ready — but be judicious. There will be incredible opportunities in the coming months!”

Sadat says that right now noise will be coming at us from all sides, especially political hype during an election year. With this in mind, he emphasizes a holistic approach: “Keep to the center, sharpen your skills, and observe with maximum awareness of the moment. This too shall pass, and we will be just fine.”

Check back for more updates on this developing story.

This Is What Will Really Cause The Next Housing Crash…

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By Fuquan Bilal

Whether you believe we are already in a correction or not, here’s the one thing that may really be responsible for tipping the housing market over the edge.

It’s sellers asking too much.

Who’s to Blame for the Housing Crash?

There were lots of people, groups and organizations blamed for the housing bubble and crash in 2006-2008.

crisis-2061342_1280At first they tried to blame investors and house flippers. At least until the government needed them to take on all the distressed properties, and actually loosened lending regulations to sell and finance more houses to investors.

Appraisers, too, were blamed for overinflating values, often in collusion with banks. Banks were committing all types of fraud. And then forced insurance and foreclosure fraud really put the icing on the cake.

To top it off, interest rates through 2006 were on the rise, which really stalled the market. Especially in tandem with cutting back on lending and ending easy to get loans. Something which the government has just done again with the FHA, after years of subprime type lending.

All of the things are happening again now. However, probably most significantly of all, is that property owners ran into problems when they owed too much, cash flow started slowing, and people stopped buying because prices just didn’t make sense anymore. The only people they made sense for were speculative flippers, and eventually they hit a ceiling too.

Uninformed & Unrealistic Sellers

All you have to do is hop on to Zillow or Realtor.com for a few minutes, and you’ll see plenty of examples of owners and agents listing for as much as double as the value estimates right alongside their asking prices. Often this is right next to a graph clearly showing a recent steep dive in that property’s value. One property in Florida shows it was recently bought for $21,000, is valued around $70,000, but the seller is asking $124,000 for it. There are plenty of other public listings out there that you can see have been vacant and listed for a year. The sellers have barely budged in lowering their asking prices.

chart-1585601_1280For easy math, take a house that may be worth $100,000, but the seller and realtor have been demanding $120,000. After a year, they finally fold and reduce the price to $100,000. Only now it may only be worth $70,000. So it sits on the market for another year. Finally, out of desperation they lower the price to $70,000, but now no one wants to pay more than $35,000 for it, because of the market and economy. They are completely stuck. They may have put in more than the property is now worth just to hold it all that time. They may owe more than anyone is willing to pay right now. They are financially tapped out and frustrated. It gets foreclosed on, and they lose everything.

There are probably several hundred thousand sellers in this situation right now, at least. Millions if you count all phases of the journey we just outlined.

shopping-1724299_1280It could easily be avoided by pricing right. Of course, in a few years this same property will probably be worth $150,000 or more, and could be generating $1,000 a month in rents in the meantime. Most just won’t be able to manage through it though.

So, we’re ending up with a lot of new deal flow coming through. Again, we’ll see local governments and banks flush with distressed mortgage notes and REOs for qualified funds to acquire at discounts. We’re also seeing investors selling off portfolios of hundreds of units to cash out.

It’s a shame that some sellers will have to go through this journey. Yet, there is great opportunity for investors who have the connections to acquire right priced assets and know how to manage them.

Investment Opportunities

Find out more about investing in secured debt and real estate, go to NNG Capital Fund

Fuquan

Fuquan Bilal

Fuquan Bilal founded NNG in 2012 with the principal mission of capitalizing on the growing supply of mortgage notes in the interbank marketplace. Mr .Bilal utilizes his 17 years of residential and commercial real estate success to identify real estate opportunities and capitalize on them. To date, he has successfully managed three private mortgage note funds that primarily invest in singlefamily performing and non­performing mortgage notes. His financial acumen and proprietary set of investment criteria enable him to purchase underperforming real estate assets at a deep discount of face and market values, thereby increasing the value of the assets. This, coupled with his ability to maximize the use of leverage, enables him to build strong, secured portfolios with solid passive income flows.

Interest Rate and Home Price Swings

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By Rick Tobin

Historically, the #1 reason why home prices generally rise, remain flat, or fall is directly related to the latest 30-year fixed mortgage rates. This is true because the vast majority of home buyers need third-party funds from banks, credit unions, or mortgage professionals to purchase and sell their homes to new buyers who also usually need bank financing to cash the seller out.

Over the past 10 years, a very high percentage of mortgage loans used to acquire residential (one-to-four unit) properties have originated, directly or indirectly, from some form of government-owned, -backed, or -insured money, such as FHA (Federal Housing Administration), VA (U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs), USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture for more rural properties), Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mac, and Freddie Mac in both the primary and secondary markets. Most of these same government-assisted mortgage programs allow buyers to purchase properties with as little as no money down to just 3.5% down payments. Many times, the seller and family members can credit the most or all of the closing costs or down payment requirements so that the buyer really has no money invested in the property.

To the buyer, the most important part of the purchase deal is related to qualifying for a very low 30-year fixed mortgage rate and an affordable monthly payment. When the interest rates are too high, then fewer buyers can qualify for properties. During these higher rate time periods, home prices typically stay neutral or fall in price as seen during past periods of deflation like back in the mid-1970s. As such, almost all “boom” (positive) or “bust” (negative) housing cycles are directly related to low or high rates of interest, so they tend to correlate or go hand-in-hand with one another.

Interest Rate History: 1971 – 2018

Between 1971 and 2018, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have ranged between a low of 3.31% in 2012 to a high of 18.63% in 1981. Fixed-rate mortgages are still hovering near historical lows at present and in recent years. An estimated 60%+ of mortgage holders are paying fixed-rates on their residential owner-occupied properties somewhere within the 3.00% and 4.90% rate ranges as of 2015, per data released by Freddie Mac.

During this same 47-year timespan (1971 – 2018), the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was near 8.08%. This rate is almost double the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan between 2010 and 2019. Because the ease of qualification and the affordability of mortgage loans is typically the most important factor behind a booming or busting housing market, the more recent 3% to 5% rate ranges over the past 10 years has helped fuel a stronger housing market with rapid appreciation rates as well.

Most often, owner-occupants are using some type of a government-backed or insured mortgage loan and / or secondary market investor to purchase their properties. These loans include FHA, VA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. The typical down payment ranges used to purchase these properties are very likely to average somewhere within the 0% to 3.5% down payment range. Many times, the seller provides a credit towards most of the closing costs and / or another family member assists with the down payment as a gift of some sort.

If so, a very high percentage of owner-occupied home buyers have purchased their homes with little to no money down out of their own pocket prior to qualifying for tax-deductible mortgage payments that were less than a nearby apartment to lease. Additionally, these same homeowners have boosted their overall net worth after the vast majority of residential properties have appreciated at significant annual percentage rates. In some cases, homes have double in value in less than five to seven years due to the combination of affordable mortgage loans, easier mortgage underwriting approval processes, and increasing demand for properties to purchase.

Source: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)

The Consumer Debt Anchor

With home mortgages, the primary collateral for the loan balance is the home itself. In the event of a future default, the lender can file a foreclosure notice and take the property back several months later. With automobile loans, the car dealership or current lender servicing the loan can repossess the car.

Homeowners often refinance their non-deductible consumer debt that generally have shorter terms, much higher interest rates, and no tax benefits most often into newer cash-out refinance mortgage loans that reduce their monthly debt obligations. While this can be wise for many property owners, it may be a bit risky for other property owners if they leverage their homes too much.

With credit cards, lenders don’t have any real collateral to protect their financial interests, which is why the interest rates can easily be double-digits about 10%, 20%, or 30% in annual rates and fees, regardless of any national usury laws that were meant to protect borrowers from being charged “unnecessarily and unfairly high rates and fees” as usury laws were originally designed to do when first drafted.

Zero Hedge has reported that 50% of Americans don’t have access to even $400 cash for an emergency situation. Some tenants pay upwards of 50% to 60% of their income on rent. A past 2017 study by Northwestern Mutual noted the following details in regard to the lack of cash and high credit card balances for upwards of 50% of young and older Americans today:

* 50% of Baby Boomers have basically no retirement savings.

* 50% of Americans (excluding mortgage balances) have outstanding debt balances (credit cards, etc.) of more than $25,000.

* The average American with debt has credit card balances of $37,000, and an annual income of just $30,000.

* Over 45% of consumers spend up to 50% of their monthly income on debt repayments that are typically near minimum monthly payments.

Rising Global Debt

According to a report released by IIF (Institute of International Finance) Global Debt Monitor, debt rose to a whopping $246 trillion in the 1st quarter of 2019. In just the first three months of 2019, global debt increased by a staggering $3 trillion dollar amount. The rate of global debt far outpaced the rate of economic growth in the same first quarter of 2019 as the total debt/GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio rose to 320%.

The same IIF Global Debt Monitor report for Q1 2019 noted that the debt by sector as a percentage of GDP as follows:

  • Households: 59.8%
  • Non-financial corporates: 91.4%
  • Government: 87.2%
  • Financial corporates: 80.8%

Rate Cuts and Negative Yields

As of 2019, there’s reportedly an estimated $13.64 trillion dollars worldwide that generates negative yields or returns for the investors who hold government or corporate bonds. This same $13.64 trillion dollar number represents approximately 25% of all sovereign or corporate bond debt worldwide.

On July 31, 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that they cut short-term rates 0.25% (a quarter point). Their new target range for its overnight lending rate is now somewhere within the 2% to 2.25% rate range. This is 25 basis points lower than their last Fed meeting decision reached on June 19th. This was the first rate cut since the start of the financial recession (or depression) in almost 11 years ago dating back to December 2008.

There are three additional Federal Reserve two-day meeting dates scheduled for 2019 that include:

  • September 17-18
  • October 29-30
  • December 10-11

It’s fairly likely that the Fed will cut rates one or more times at these remaining 2019 meeting dates. If so, short and long-term borrowing costs may move downward and become more affordable for consumers and homeowners. If this happens, then it may be a boost to the housing and financial markets for so long as the economy stabilizes in other sectors as well such as international trade, consumer spending and the retail sector, government deficit spending levels, and other economic factors or trends.

We shall see what happens between now and year-end in 2019 and beyond.

 

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has a diversified background in both the real estate and securities fields for the past 30+ years. He has held seven (7) different real estate and securities brokerage licenses to date, and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. Rick has an extensive background in the financing of residential and commercial properties around the U.S with debt, equity, and mezzanine money. His funding sources have included banks, life insurance companies, REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), equity funds, and foreign money sources. You can visit Rick Tobin at RealLoans.com for more details.