Your June 2026 Residential Lending News

By Michael Ryan

June 2026 Residential Perspective

As we cross into the peak summer buying season, the mainstream media is working overtime to capture your attention with sensational, anxiety-inducing economic headlines. But when you drill past the clickbait and look at what is actually happening under the hood, the data tells a much more stable—and encouraging—story for everyday home buyers.

Fruits of preparation & Smart Buying – Call us. Call now. Let’s separate the noise from the facts.

1. The Economy: Is AI Actually Carrying the U.S.?

The media wants you to believe artificial intelligence is single-handedly fueling the American economic engine. The truth? Very little of Q1’s revised 1.6% GDP growth (down from the initial 2% estimate) came from AI.

While big tech companies spent massively on data centers in the first quarter, much of that high-end equipment and chip inventory is imported. Because imports are subtracted from GDP, the surge of investment in AI was largely a wash—canceled out by the influx of imported AI equipment. The economy is doing okay, but it isn’t relying on AI alone. Furthermore, that spending spree is hitting a cost wall: electronic component prices have soared 19.1% year-over-year, communications gear is up 13.2%, and computer prices rose 8.2%. The tech sector is learning that the physical hardware behind the cloud is becoming incredibly expensive to sustain. Don’t let market speculators cause uncertainty—stay focused, stay grounded, and stay better prepared.

2. Inflation: “Soaring” or Steady?

The Headline: “War and tariffs fuel resurgent inflation, sending Fed’s preferred gauge soaring!”

The Reality: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s actual preferred gauge—came in lighter than expectations at 3.8% headline and 3.5% core year-over-year. Outside of shelter costs taking a brief, artificial two-month data hit (due to no report the previous month), these readings are remarkably calm. Calling a couple of tenths of a percent shift “soaring” is pure hyperbole.

Meanwhile, demand is cooling in sections of the real world: durable goods orders disappointed with a 1.1% drop, and the personal savings rate is taking it on the chin as families use savings and tax refunds to offset the stubborn, daily hammer of fuel prices.

3. Interest Rates & The Fed: A Clearer Lens on Inflation

With recent minor inflation upticks, some talking heads are warning of imminent rate hikes. To echo noted economist Elliot Eisenberg: “Talk of Fed rate hikes is insane. Home prices and rents—which make up over 33% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—are cooling. Wage growth continues to soften, and tariff-driven distortions will work through the system by winter.”

Furthermore, shifting perspectives at the central bank are bringing a more balanced lens to the real economy: the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE.

While official Core PCE currently stands at 3.3%, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean measure is running much closer to the target at 2.3%. By throwing out the most extreme monthly outliers—removing the highest 31% of price increases and the lowest 24% of price declines—this calculation filters out temporary distortions caused by factors like geopolitical energy shocks or investment spending surges. This provides a much clearer view of underlying, persistent inflation trends. Focusing on this trimmed mean measure strengthens a mathematically sound case for interest rate cuts once temporary global disruptions fade.



4. The Labor Market: A Housing Win-Win

While earlier indicators hinted at extreme softening, the latest data shows a steadier underlying momentum. The private sector ADP report for May showed an increase of 122,000 jobs, signaling broad-based, healthy momentum across sectors. The headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll report delivered a major surprise, coming in at +172,000 jobs—shattering the market estimate of 85,000. More importantly, the previous two months’ data were revised upward by a combined 100,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held flat at 4.3% with an incremental decline, while underemployment (U-6) eased a tenth of a point as well.

How many jobs does the U.S. economy actually need to create each year right now? With a sub-replacement fertility rate and shifting net immigration baselines, macro analyst Jim Bianco postulates the answer may be closer to zero, with current U.S. expansion heavily driven by productivity (roughly 92% of growth) rather than raw headcount growth (8%).

Here is the win-win for housing: If job growth stays robust and continues to beat estimates, consumer purchasing power remains high. If headcount numbers stall while productivity takes the wheel, corporate strength remains insulated and the economy avoids a hard landing. Either way, housing demand has a rock-solid floor.

5. Consumer Debt: The Household Clean-Up

Consumers are actively adjusting their habits to manage high interest rates. Federal Reserve data reveals that credit card debt saw a pullback in the first quarter, meaning families are relying a bit less on cards to pay for daily life. Instead, they are aggressively focusing on paying down balances with sky-high APRs, which averaged a lofty 21.5% in the first quarter and are poised to stay there for a while.

Meanwhile, debt categories like mortgages, auto loans, and home equity lines of credit moved higher. While credit card and auto delinquency rates remain elevated, they flattened out in the first quarter of this year. The one outlier bearing close watch? Student loan delinquencies, which saw a sizable jump up to 10.3%.

– Loan Spotlight: The “Wealth Builder” First-Lien HELOC

To match these changing dynamics, we are highlighting a powerful financial tool designed for buyers and homeowners looking for maximum cash-flow efficiency.

Our Wealth Builder program is a specialized standalone first mortgage structured as an all-in-one Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). It completely replaces your traditional 30-year fixed loan and functions as your new financial operating system:

Your Mortgage IS Your Bank Account: When you open this loan, you get a new, fully integrated checking account through the lender. Your direct deposits, paychecks, and income flow straight into this new account.
The Power of the Nightly Sweep: Every single night, the idle money sitting in your checking account is automatically “swept” onto your mortgage balance. Because mortgage interest accrues daily, this nightly drop in principal immediately reduces the daily interest you owe.
Make Idle Income Work: We rarely spend our money the exact day it hits our account. Why let it sit idle in a standard bank earning zero when it can actively drive down your debt? When you need to pay bills, write checks, or make purchases, you do it directly out of this account against your line of credit. This is ideal for disciplined savers, self-employed business owners with variable cash flow, or anyone whose income sits idle in a checking account for weeks at a time before bills are paid.
Streamlined & Fast: Because this program sits outside traditional rigid compliance tracks, it features a simplified fee sheet and no mandatory waiting periods to close.
High Capacity: Available for primary residences, second homes, and investment properties with loan limits scaling up to $3,500,000.

Need a unique, interesting loan program? Always check with us. If you find yourself in need of special financing, have a friend who doesn’t quite fit into the conventional box, or hold crypto and want lenders willing to consider its value—Call today.



The Silver Lining for Residential Real Estate

Despite the broader economic crosscurrents, the structural reality of housing hasn’t changed: we remain fundamentally under-built on housing units. The major surprise of the month comes from Cotality’s Home Price Insights report. National home values rose 0.4% in April, putting them up 0.3% year-over-year. While the year-to-date pace points to a modest 2.4% for the full year, Cotality is explicitly bullish that things will pick up. They are forecasting a 0.9% jump for May and have upgraded their year-ahead appreciation projections to 5.3% (up from 5.1% in their previous report).

Underneath that national average, look at how beautifully stable the market is performing:

Flat & Predictable Pricing: The Single-Family Residence (SFR) median listing price has trended wonderfully flat since the third week of January, while median days on the market has actually ticked slightly lower in that same timeframe.
The Inventory Deficit: Inventory levels remain extremely tight, with 35 states showing lower housing inventory than pre-pandemic levels.
The Migration Paradox: Interestingly, the states seeing the highest percentages of inventory growth compared to pre-COVID baselines are the exact states experiencing the highest rates of positive in-migration. Before you buy, let’s drill down into your local markets to see how they compare to the general trend. We can help.

Market MetricCurrent StatusReal-World Takeaway
Q1 GDP (2nd Look)Revised down to 1.6%Softening caused by tech import drags and high mid-March oil prices.
May BLS Jobs+172,000 jobs (+100K revisions)Labor market remains robust; crushing initial low estimates.
Cotality ProjectionsForecasting 5.3% appreciationUnderlying housing demand remains structurally resilient.
Dallas Fed Trimmed MeanHolding at 2.3%Strips out wild outliers; signals core inflation is near target.
Avg. Credit Card APRLofty 21.5%Highlights why consumers are rapidly paying down high-interest cards.

What This Means For You — The Bottom Line

Each of us is on a unique path to homeownership. Note this key to success: early work secures a better range of options and control of timing when it comes to buying and financing a new home. Make this month your month to prepare. We can show you how to buy now and still enjoy future rate cuts.

What makes Mike Ryan special is in what we do. Our work begins and ends with you. We meet each person where they are, offering effective guidance leading to solid, stable, and actionable options. “Preparation and Patience” wins.

Call now for our first conversation. Let’s bring together financing options customized specifically for you. We look forward to meeting with you, whether on the phone or face-to-face, to talk through your thoughts and solutions with absolutely no surprises.

Find a financial professional who cares about you as their first priority. Call today or click below to schedule your consultation directly.

Click Here to Book Your Private Strategy Call
Explore more financial strategies for this market:
• How do the qualifying credit guidelines (like minimum FICO or housing history) for the Wealth Builder HELOC compare to a standard conventional loan?

Be well, be safe, and enjoy your family and friends.
Mike Ryan Residential & Commercial Lending Strategist
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P.S. In reading this, who comes to mind in need of trusted, valid information about money and finance? Help us help them. They will be glad you did and thank you.

Michael Ryan
Michael Ryan & Associates
4880 Stevens Creek Blvd # 200
San Jose, CA 95129

Analyzing the Sideways Housing Market Shift

By Rick Tobin

The housing market in many regions across the nation can be best described as “sideways” where home prices remain relatively stable and listing inventory is still well below historical averages.

While housing trends are more localized and can vary from a stronger sellers’ market to a better buyers’ market depending on the region, we’re seeing sideways types of stable home price trends in many regions that fluctuate within a more narrow price range swing. It’s not an obvious appreciating or booming price trend or a downward, busting, or depreciating price movement.

Whether your local housing market region has a balanced market supply of buyers and sellers or many more sellers than buyers, home listing prices aren’t drastically falling on a large scale as of yet.

For any type of product or service, an equalized number of buyers and sellers is usually more positive than negative to at least keep the prices relatively stable or flat.



Our Unusual Sideways Housing Market

I describe average price trends in most regions as “flat” in spite of so many historic negative housing and economic trends that would’ve acted like a figurative anchor in previous housing cycles and pulled home values back down. If so, it would’ve created more “underwater” properties where the mortgage debt exceeded the current home market value.

Let’s take a closer look at sideways types of housing market characteristics:

Flat home prices: A more typical home price trend for a sideways housing market is when home prices remain flat or stagnant, partly since the number of buyers and sellers is more balanced. However, home prices are either flat or slowly appreciating in spite of the record imbalance of sellers vs. buyers.

An inverted housing market: We’re not seeing home prices crashing like they did during the 2008 to 2012 era at this point in today’s housing cycle. Nationally, there were an estimated 1.99 million sellers competing for approximately 1.48 million buyers, as per Fortune and Redfin in Q1 of 2026.

The whopping number of an all-time record 630,000 more home sellers than buyers should’ve created a much stronger buyer’s market as home listing price averages should’ve trended downward. However, we’re still not seeing that happen on a large scale in more regions.

Doubling Home Listing Numbers: You’ve probably noticed the national home listing supply numbers moving up over the past year from a low near one million to almost two million today.

What’s a bit confusing is that many of these national home listing supply numbers just focus on older existing-homes for sale, while not including the near record number of new builder homes for sale as well.

Average new U.S. home prices from motivated builders continue to remain priced below older existing homes for sale. This price trend differential is highly unusual because buyers used to willingly pay an average of 15% higher for new homes due to the obvious benefits of brand new appliances, roof, windows, plumbing features, and lengthy home warranty plans.

After combining the older and brand new home listings, this number gets closer to two million. However, it’s still about half as large as the four million home listings for sale back near the previous housing bubble peak in 2007.

As I’ve shared for many years, the number of distressed (forbearance, loan modifications, pre-foreclosures, etc.) and vacant “shadow inventory” supply of homes absolutely dwarfs the national home listing inventory supply by a significant number.

After this huge number of distressed properties, which may have delinquent mortgages that haven’t been paid for several years, later turns into foreclosures and future listings, then median home prices are likely to remain stagnant or start falling.

A positive population trend that I’ve shared before is that there are now 40 million people living here in the U.S. today than there were back in 2007 when national home listing inventories peaked near 4 million homes for sale. However, how many of these additional 40 million people living in the U.S. can qualify to purchase a home or lease a property?

Older Buyers and Sellers, Fewer Families

Adults between the ages of 61 and 79 continue to dominate the U.S. housing market and represent the largest group of home buyers and sellers, according to the National Association of REALTORS®’ newly released 2026 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report.

Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) accounted for 42% of all U.S. home buyers and 55% of home sellers, according to this NAR report. First-time home buyers fell to their lowest share on the NAR’s records that date back to 1981, comprising just 21% of all home buyers.

The average first-time U.S. homebuyer age in 2025 was 40 years of age. Sadly, the average first-time homebuyer age in California last year was closer to an all-time record high of 49. If a California buyer takes out a 30-year mortgage and doesn’t pay any extra principal payments, then they will be 79 years of age by the time their home is free-and-clear with no debt.

In 2025, there were more home buyers across the nation over the age of 70 than under the age of 35. Last year, the average U.S. home seller was 64 years of age.

Both marital and fertility trends are near historic lows as fewer people are truly in love or financially secure enough to get married and have children. Raising children from birth until just the age of 18 in today’s America can cost an average of $300,000, as per CBS News.

The number #1 cause of divorce these days is not related to a spouse being unfaithful. No, it’s related more to financial pressures. Ironically, the top 2 reasons for financial insolvency these days are tied to unpaid medical bills and divorce.

Unhappy relationships and feelings of disconnection among the younger generations will eventually be a major factor causing declining future single-family home sales, especially if they don’t have any loving family members living with them.

Mortgage Rates and Record Debt

Those new record low 3% mortgage rates are long gone. Yet, today’s rates that are swinging from the low-to-high 6% rate range for many applicants are still well below the 50-year historical average for 30-year fixed mortgage rates that are closer to 7.76%.

A major difference today for many people is the fact that our dollar’s purchase power keeps falling at a rapid pace. This is painfully obvious for many of us who go grocery shopping.

A prime example of how bad food prices have gotten is the fact that a recent LendingTree survey found that nearly one-in-three Americans are using Buy Now, Pay Later type of costly installment plan services to buy groceries.

The average new car payment is nearly $775 per month, while some new truck payments can be in the $2,000 to $3,000 per month range. Gas prices here in California are more likely to be above $6 per gallon than below that figure. Car insurance and maintenance costs keep rising as well. As a result, it may cost a car owner an average of closer to $1,500 per month (car payment, gas, insurance, maintenance, etc.) or more to keep driving their car.

Total unpaid credit card debt reached a new record high in Q1 2026 at nearly $1.25 trillion dollars. With APRs (Annual Percentage Rate) for many rates and fees somewhere within the 28% to 40% APR range, it’s becoming incredibly challenging to pay off consumer debt.

Buying and Selling Timing Options

It’s been said that the three most important factors for real estate are “location, location, and location.” While this may be true for prime coastal beachfront properties in Southern California like those found in Huntington Harbour, Newport Beach, and Laguna Beach, I would add market timing as the fourth most important factor.

How often do we look back and clearly see that the housing market was peaking or busting? With 20/20 hindsight today, it’s much easier to see the positive or negative housing trends in the past.

What’s more important is to pay close attention to the positive or negative trends in your housing market regions of interest today!

If this perceived flat or stagnant housing market suddenly turns into a downward home price cycle, then you as a buyer will have less competition to purchase discounted properties that interest you.

For sellers in a declining housing market with a record imbalance of sellers-to-buyers, you will need to seriously consider reducing your home listing prices instead of waiting and holding out for all-time record price highs for your neighborhood.



Please closely watch the average Days on Market (DOM) for your region to have a better understanding of home value trends. An increasingly longer number of active days for sale is more likely to lead to future home price drops rather than price hikes.

For savvy real estate investors who closely follow Realty411, if you’re the only active investor in your region interested in a distressed property that may or may not be currently listed for sale, you might boost your nest egg by purchasing well below market value and holding on to it for the long run.

As many of us know, real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation. Our dollar will continue to keep weakening and inflation will keep rising each year more often than not. As a result, property values may keep rising as well in spite of a potentially weakening economy.


Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California.

Rick provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California.

Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options, join his investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors, and follow his new So-Cal Real Estate TV channel for more details.


Rick Tobin
Realloans (Real Estate Loans)
https://realloans.com/
Phone or Text: (760) 485 – 2422
NMLS 1934868
Equal Housing Opportunity / Equal Housing Lender
To quickly apply online: Loan Application
For our real estate course: Learn Real Estate

Please follow our new real estate channel (watch on television, computers, and phones): So-Cal Real Estate TV

Our Facebook business pages: Realloans, Inside Los Angeles, Inside Pacific Palisades, Inside Long Beach, Inside Huntington Beach, Inside Orange County, Inside La Jolla, Inside San Diego, Inside Lake Elsinore, Inside Temecula Valley, Inside Coachella Valley, and So-Cal Real Estate Investors.

Here are some of my articles: The Fall of 2025 and Rise of New Opportunities, The Intersection of Declining Home Sales and Creative Marketing, Are Lower Rates on the Horizon?, Weather Extremes, Homes, and Insurance Risks, The California Gold Rush Boom, and Are You Focused on Commercial Real Estate?

Please join my So-Cal Real Estate Investors group that meets at Canyon Lake Golf & Country Club, Shoreline Yacht Club in Long Beach, and online: So-Cal Real Estate Investors.

The Grandson Tries to Exploit Granny for Personal Gain

Financial Elder Abuse in America is at Crisis Proportions

by Dan J. Harkey

Summary

We have degraded our society to encourage entitlements and pursue unearned benefits and parasitic behavior, where criminal-based exploitation has little or no consequences.

Real Life Example:

In a real-life scenario, a grandson, the successor trustee of a family trust, requested a loan using his grandmother’s trust property. This raised suspicions of financial elder abuse, as the grandson intended to use the loan for personal gain rather than for the benefit of his grandmother.



Article:

The Loan Request:

My client is a 94-year-old lady in a retirement home. Her husband has passed away. The property title is in a family trust with multiple beneficiaries, and the grandson acts as successor trustee. The estate will be settled upon Grandma’s death, and proceeds will be distributed to the numerous family beneficiaries.
The successor trustee, the grandson, wants to borrow money, using the free and clear single-family asset held in the family trust, as collateral to purchase a franchise business he intends to operate.

Borrower background:

The trust document authorizes the successor trustee (grandson) to convey title in a sale or borrow against the property as the single signer.

The free and clear property is valued at $800,000. The grandson desired to sell the property with the option of purchasing it back in 24 months for maximum cash-out to acquire a franchise business for himself as a 100% owner. His chosen method to obtain capital for his business franchise purchase was to quickly sell the property at a steep discount to get his greedy hands on the proceeds.

The ‘greedy’ grandson planned to borrow quick money and use the property as collateral while waiting for a sale and closing. He was referred to a hard money lender, a private lender typically providing short-term loans secured by real estate, for a short bridge loan. A hard money lender typically provides loans with higher interest rates and shorter terms, often used for real estate investments or in situations where traditional financing is unavailable.

The remaining family beneficiaries did not know that their future inheritance financial benefits would be misappropriated and permanently lost by one greedy relative. Like millions of others, the sociopathic grandson dwells in a self-absorbed dreamland of entitlement. I have met a few of these terrible people.

The competent lender responds.

The lender representing trust deed investors to originate this loan asked the procuring borrower’s loan broker if the elder had legal counsel to represent her interests. Would the borrower’s counsel provide a letter stating that Grandma understood this transaction’s material facts and ramifications? Would you happen to know if the transaction is an appropriate financial decision?

When asked if the elderly grandmother had legal counsel to represent her interests, the loan broker representing the grandson responded. Yes, a lawyer involved only represents the grandson. This response raised a major red flag, as it indicated potential collusion. The lawyer, who only represented the grandson, may have been willing to participate in defrauding the grandmother in the scheme to misappropriate unearned benefits away from the estate.

Any equity or proceeds from the sale of the property or loan proceeds should be reserved to pay for Grandma’s housing and continuing care.

Any prudent and knowledgeable real estate or mortgage broker representing private money trust deed investors will decline this loan request. The procuring borrower’s loan broker representing the greedy grandson will likely continue dialing for dollars to find another sucker lender dumb enough to arrange this transaction.

A procuring loan broker involved in this transaction is a bona fide scoundrel, a term used to describe a person who is genuinely and notoriously dishonest or dishonorable. The property equity has gone, the grandson takes money for personal use, other beneficiaries get screwed, and there is no money to care for grandma’s medical and living expenses. The parasitic scoundrel was waiting for Grandma to die to cover up this fraud. I call this effort ‘Felony Stupid.’

Yes, fraud, elder abuse, and negligent misrepresentation will surface when the beneficiaries left out of their rightful inheritance file a lawsuit against the grandson, mortgage brokers, the borrower’s lawyer, and investor(s) who purchased the trust deeds.

Any reasonable loan broker will run for the hills or hop on a bus, Gus, and drop off the Key Lee to avoid this transaction.



Comments:

Financial elder abuse relates to the misappropriation of financial resources or assets. An abuser will take, misallocate, misappropriate, secretly obtain, or retain the real or personal property of an elderly or dependent adult for wrongful use, intending to defraud. This is a prevalent issue that requires immediate attention and action.

Third-party support staff members have daily contact and access to older adults and work to instill confidence and trust. Trusted individuals, like family members, paid caregivers, and nursing home staff members, commit most elder abuse cases. We read about these incidents daily. Misappropriating an older person’s financial interests, personal abuse, or intentional negligence is fraud. Known incidents should result in the perpetrator’s prosecution. Unfortunately, too many get away with the abuse because incidents go unreported.

As a real estate professional, your vigilance and awareness can significantly reduce financial elder abuse. Watch for signs of potential financial misappropriation or misrepresentations by any parties. Your feelings or voices are an acting guide to rightness or wrongness. Avoid any transactions that do not pass the conscience test. By being vigilant, you can play a crucial role in preventing such abuse and protecting vulnerable individuals.

The problem is that some people who are described as sociopaths or antisocial personality disorder are said to lack remorse or filter decisions through a conscience. They generally have no bad feelings about their actions that harm others. In the U.S., between 6.25 and 17.7 percent of adults are considered sociopaths, with an average of about 12%. 12% of approximately 260 million adults equals 31 million. The walk among us; ponder that!

All involved parties should be self-aware and vigilant at first notice if a person cannot care for or make decisions for themselves. The self-aware person is the one who notices through personal interaction that something is not right, will notify related parties, and take the necessary action to remedy the situation, whether temporary or permanent. This person is a hero and a star! Millions of people are these heroes and get no credit for their efforts.

Statistics suggest that only 1 in 44 financial abuse cases are reported, according to the National Adult Protective Services Association (NAPSA). Reporting is not just important; it’s crucial. NAPSA also notes that elderly victims of financial abuse are three times more likely to die and four times more likely to enter a nursing home without sufficient funds to care for themselves. By reporting, you can help prevent these dire consequences. Your actions can make a significant difference in the lives of vulnerable individuals.

Elders will be victims of financial crimes perpetrated against them for about 20% of $73 trillion, or $14,600,000,000,000 (trillion with a capital T and 12 zeros) assets that otherwise should go to future beneficiaries will be misappropriated or stolen. This staggering figure underscores the prevalence and urgency of the issue.

An estimate of the average baby boomer family wealth might be $2,000,000. The calculation means that there would be an estimated 20% of the wealth (14,600,000,000,000/2,000,000=7,300,000) separate incidents of elder financial abuse. This prevalence is alarming. For this estimate, let’s assume this is over ten years +/—730,000 separate elder abuse incidences per year, or 2,000 new ones every day. This awareness should prompt us to be more cautious and vigilant.

We have degraded our society to encourage entitlements and pursue unearned benefits and parasitic behavior, where criminal-based exploitation has little or no consequences. Any act of eroding a person’s lifetime earnings and financial stability is an unheard-of, terrible act. Any involvement by a fiduciary is a fraud.

Dan Harkey
Educator & Private Money Lending Consultant
[email protected] 949 533 8315
www.danharkey.com

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