Inflation, Home Price Swings, and Wealth Distribution

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By Rick Tobin

Between January 2020 and October 2021, the M1 money supply (cash or cash-like instruments) quickly rose from $4 trillion up to $20 trillion in just 22 months. Money velocity, or money creation speed, is the true root cause of rapidly declining purchasing power and skyrocketing inflation. The more money in circulation, the less purchasing power for the dollar.

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In January 2024, Americans were paying $213 per month more to purchase the same goods and services one year earlier in 2023 because of rising inflation and the declining purchasing power of the dollar. As compared with two years ago in 2022, Americans are paying $605 more per month. Sadly, we’re now paying $1,019 more PER MONTH ($12,228 more per year) today for the same goods and services we purchased three years ago in 2021.

Shipping, trucking, and other transportation costs are quickly rising amid geopolitical tensions. Historically, increasing transportation and energy costs are a root cause of inflation trends. Don’t be surprised if inflation rates and interest rates are both higher later this year instead of lower.

Home Value-to-Income Ratio in the U.S.

The U.S. home value-to-income ratio is calculated by dividing the $342,000 median home value by the $74,580 median household home, according to Economy Vision. If home prices had grown at the same rate as income since 2000, the median U.S. home would cost nearly $294,000, or 31% to 32% lower than today’s prices.

U.S. households need an average income of $166,600 to afford a home, but the median household income is $74,580. The lowest home price-to-income ratios in large metropolitan regions are in Pittsburgh (3.2x), Buffalo (3.5),and Cleveland (3.5), while many California regions are near 10 to 20x. Some smaller suburban or rural regions in Southern Illinois and other Midwest regions are closer to 1.5 to 1.8 for home price-to-income ratios.

Increasing Distressed Residential and Commercial Mortgage Numbers

Millions of Distressed Residential Mortgages

The federal government keeps extending the millions of distressed FHA and VA loans, or offering discounted loan modifications, partly so that they don’t push the national home listing supply skyward and reduce home prices at the same time.

The C-19 foreclosure or forbearance moratoriums for millions of FHA and VA borrowers began back in the fall of 2020. As a result, many of these home borrowers haven’t made a mortgage payment for more than three years.

The FHA forbearance moratoriums for FHA borrowers expired on November 30, 2023 while the VA forbearance moratoriums were extended until May 31, 2024. At some point, these loans will need to be brought back current, sold, or foreclosed.

In the previous housing crash that was especially bad during 2008 to 2012, only about 2% (or 1 in 50 mortgages) of all residential loans were delinquent. Yet, these distressed home mortgages became future lower value comps for the nearby homes while driving their prices downward too, sadly.

If and when the national home listing supply numbers rapidly increase this year, it will eventually have a negative impact on home price trends because it’s all supply-and-demand economics at the true core. When supply of a product or asset rises and exceeds buyer demand, then prices tend to fall (and vice versa).

Concerning Commercial Mortgage Trends

An estimated 44% of office buildings nationwide with mortgages in place are claimed to be upside-down with negative equity here near the start of 2024. Some office buildings are selling for as low as $9 per square foot, not $900/sq. Ft. By the end of 2024, the underwater office building numbers may be well over 50% and the overall underwater or upside-down numbers for all commercial property types may be somewhere within the 20% to 25% range.

Physical and Online Retail Store Numbers

  • In Q3 2023, the amount of U.S. retail space available for lease plunged to an all-time low since the CoStar commercial real estate group started tracking back in 2007.
  • The previous seven years in a row (2017 – 2023) shattered all-time retail space closings per square foot in U.S. history.
  • Through just September 2023, 73 million square feet of retail space closed in 2023, as per Coresight.
  • 140 million square feet of retail space has been demolished in the last decade, according to CoStar.
  • Top 6 online sales percentages in 2023: 1. Amazon (37.6%); 2. Walmart (6.4%); 3. Apple (3.6%); 4. eBay (3%); and 5. Target and Home Depot (a tie at 1.9% each), per Statista.
  • 10.4% of total annual U.S. retail sales were online in 2017;
  • 12.2% of total annual retail sales were online in 2018;
  • 13.8% of total annual retail sales were online in 2019;
  • 17.8% of total annual retail sales were ecommerce in 2020;
  • 18.9% of total annual retail sales were ecommerce in 2021; &
  • 18.9% of total retail sales were online in 2022, per Statista.
  • The full 2023 online year results weren’t published yet.

Record-High Car Payments

Some new monthly car payments are reaching $3,000 per month, while average new car payments are near $730 to $750 per month. Additionally, many monthly car insurance payments are reaching $400 to $500 per month in cities like Detroit and Philadelphia. How much are these car owners paying in gas and maintenance as well?

The national average cost for car insurance rose a whopping +26% from last year, according to Bankrate.

The most expensive cities for car insurance are:

Detroit – $5,687
Philadelphia – $4,753
Miami – $4,213
Tampa – $4,078
Las Vegas – $3,626

The cheapest cities are:

Seattle – $1,759
Portland – $1,976
Minneapolis – $2,044
Boston – $2,094
Washington D.C. – $2,430

The average car loan today is valued at 125% LTV (loan-to-value) for the typical car on the road with a loan with an average negative equity balance of -$6,000. This is partly because so many car buyers are purchasing cars with no money down and adding their registration, licensing, taxes, and warranty fees on top of it before driving off of the car lot. New cars usually drop in value about 20% in the very first year of purchase.

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Inflationary or Deflationary Economic Cycles

Inflation has been described as an increase in the general level of prices of a certain product in a specific type of currency. Inflation can be measured by taking a “basket of goods,” and then comparing them at different periods of time while adjusting the changes on an annualized basis.

General inflation measures the value of a currency within a certain nation’s borders, and refers to the rise in the general level of prices. Currency devaluation measures the value of currency fluctuations between different nations. Some related terms associated with inflation are as follows:

* Deflation is a rise in the purchasing power of money, and a corresponding lowering of prices for goods and services. The Fed doesn’t like this economic period of time and will probably cut short term rates to offset it.

* Disinflation refers to the slowing rate of inflation. The Fed may like this type of economic time period, and may stop raising rates at this point in the economic cycle.

* Reflation is the period of time when inflation begins after a long period of deflation. Depending upon the severity of inflation, the Fed may pause the rate hikes or gradually begin rate hikes.

* Hyperinflation is rapid inflation without any tendency toward equilibrium. It is inflation which compounds and produces even more inflation. It is when inflation is much greater than consumers’ demand for goods and services. The Fed, and the rest of America, do not typically like this economic period, so they may enact a series of significant rate hikes to slow inflation.

The Wealth Distribution Imbalance

Wealth distribution across the U.S. has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer people since 1990. Overall, the top 10% of wealthiest Americans own more than the bottom 90% combined, with more than $95 trillion in wealth for the top 10%.

Here in 2024, the share of wealth held by the richest 0.1% is near its peak with a minimum of $38 million in wealth in just 131,000 households.

With $20 trillion in wealth, the top 0.1% earn an average of $3.3 million in income each year. The greatest share of the wealth owned by the top 0.1% is held in corporate equities or stocks and in mutual funds, which make up over one-third of their total assets.

Households in the lower-middle and middle classes as found in the 50% to 90% income and asset brackets are claimed to have a minimum of $165,000 in wealth held primarily in real estate and followed by pension and retirement benefits.

Unless you’re in the Top 0.1%, the odds are quite high that the bulk of your wealth is concentrated in real estate if you’re fortunate enough to own at least one property today. In our next meeting, we will discuss how to find discounted real estate and other investments and how insurance and estate planning can help protect your assets for you and your family.

Extreme Rate Swings, Steady Home Gains

Between 2000 and 2023, the median U.S. home appreciated approximately 10.63% per year. By comparison, California homes rose 12.55% per year between 2000 and 2023.

Doubling Value Forecasts: The Rule of 72 is an investment formula used to estimate how long it may take for an asset to double in value using a projected annual rate of return (72/7 or 7% = 10+years).

A home purchased using the national average annual gain of 10.63% would double in value in just over 6.77 years if purchased this year (72/10.63 = 6.77 years). A California home would double in just 5.74 years (72/12.55) if these same average annual appreciation gains continued.

Home prices tend to go skyward following a Fed pivot when they start slashing rates. When will the Federal Reserve start cutting rates again? Let’s take a look at their calendar for 2024 two-day meeting dates: Jan. 30-31 (no rate change); March 19-20; April 30- May 1; June 11-12; July 30-31; Sept. 17-18; Nov. 6-7; & Dec. 17-18.

Inflation severely damages the purchasing power of the dollar while usually boosting real estate values. Because it’s more likely than not that inflation will continue rising above historical average trends, then real estate may be one of your best hedges against inflation as your wealth compounds and increases as well.

Rates may be lower, the same, or higher by the end of 2024, partly due to our volatile inflation movement and weakening dollar. However, there’s a tremendous upside for real estate investors if you’re willing to stay focused on the opportunities and not let the negative news scare you away.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

Elevate Your Experience this Saturday

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What Can You Expect from Realty411’s Investor Summit? 

Watch these videos below to find more information.

Elevate your experience at Realty411’s Investor Summit in Irvine, California, by upgrading to a VIP Guest. Our National Investor Summit is this Saturday, February, 24th, 2024. This event will unite investors from throughout California and the nation!

We are starting a 9 am with networking and a delicious breakfast for our VIP Guests. In addition, our VIP Guests will also enjoy lunch with additional networking opportunities with like-minded real estate investors. VIP Guests will also receive our latest publication.

Don’t forget to Elevate your Experience with a VIP TICKET today. Only a limited amount of VIP tickets remain at $47.

A variety of important subjects will be discussed at our upcoming conference, including: multifamily investing, land banking, industrial real estate, infinite banking, asset protection, real estate development, single-family investing, finance and private lending, lead generation for agents/brokers, out-of-state investing, probate investing, long-distance rentals, mindset for success, and so much more!

Be sure to connect in Southern California THIS SATURDAY, February 24th, 2024. Join us to learn and network with fantastic companies, such as:

Marco Kozlowski, Investor & Author
Marcella Silva, Dirt is Gold
Rusty Tweed, TFS Properties
Abbas M., Model Equity
Amanda Brown, MAG Capital Partners
Barry Duron, AltLender Mortgage
Jonah Dew, The Cash Compound
Jeremy Rubin, The Friendly Flipper
Kaaren Hall, uDirect IRA Services
Kris Miller, Legacy Wealth Strategist
Paul Wilkins, Probate Expert / Investor
Anthony Patrick & Mindy, New Harvest Ventures
Eli Smushkovich, CV3 Financial Services
Linda Pliagas, Realty411.com
And More!

DOWNLOAD AND LEARN TODAY!

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Maximizing Your Home’s Value: Top Interior Design Secrets for Resale Success

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By Michael Alladawi

If you want to maximize your home’s value, a well-designed interior can make a huge difference. Whether you’re planning to sell or just increase its worth for the future, implementing key design strategies can pay off big time.

But before you dive into making changes, it’s crucial to understand what truly adds value. Not every design choice will significantly impact resale value, so it’s essential to focus on the areas potential buyers are interested in.

Use Energy-Saving Fixtures

As the issue of environmental concern grows and utility costs escalate, many buyers now consider energy efficiency as they look for a new home. By adding power-efficient features, you will be able to satisfy this need and improve your house’s value greatly.

There are many energy-saving appliances now available. Take LED lighting, for instance. The average energy saving through these devices has been noted as being up to 75% less than what amount is needed in standard incandescent lamps, and their life is much longer.

Apart from cost saving, these characteristics can also be a healthier and more environmentally balanced way of living. Smart thermostats, leak detection systems, and smart home systems often attract new buyers and are a good way to increase your home’s value.

Undertake a Kitchen Remodel Project

The kitchen is commonly referred to as the heart of any home. It is the place where food is cooked, and families sit together to enjoy each other’s company. This could make a modern kitchen a great selling feature.

Some of the most common updates that will make your kitchen look much better without breaking the beak include modern appliances, countertops, and cabinets. One of the most common improvements is stainless steel appliances, as they look great and last seemingly forever.

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Granite countertops or quartz countertops are also popular due to their high-end look and durability for regular usage. Adding cabinets to your kitchen also gives you more room for storage and keeps things organized.

But, when you do a kitchen remodel, the aesthetics must be balanced with practicality. If you have a kitchen with a beautiful but less-than-functional design, prospective buyers will be turned away. You can also consider introducing a practical layout, a generous amount of counter space, and easy-to-clean surfaces.

Replace Outdated Carpets and Rugs

Firstly, updating your rugs and carpets inside the house can make a great deal of difference in its overall aesthetics. For example, hardwood floors are what many homeowners turn to because they have a timeless appeal and a better wear and tear rate. They are easy to maintain, flexible, and can fit in nearly any interior design idea you might have.

Another great option is tile, especially when applied to rooms like the kitchen or in a bathroom remodel since they require water resistance. Tiles can also be a great decor solution, available in many colors, patterns, and textures.

The investment in new flooring may appear to be a larger expense initially. However, taking into account the possible return on investment, it can pay dividends in the long term, considering you’ll be less likely to need a flooring remodel in the future as well.

Remove and Restyle Outdated Popcorn Ceilings

Many homebuyers consider popcorn ceilings – which used to be a norm in homes constructed from the 1950s to the 1980s – outdated. From a design standpoint, popcorn ceilings can darken and date the look of any room they are found in. Plus, these textured ceiling coverings made with similarly textured materials may contain asbestos, which is now illegal to produce since 1977.

Removing popcorn ceilings and adding a more contemporary finish make your home look newer. The process includes removing the old texture, fixing any issues with the original surface if needed, and applying a new finish headboard or even just smooth plaster.

Redesigning your ceilings not only adds fresh style to your house but also allows you to improve lighting and insulation. Smooth surfaces reflect light better, which creates a brighter and more spacious room. In the meantime, if you replace insulation during repairs and remodeling, you may likely improve energy efficiency in the home.

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Maximize Practicality with Added Storage and Closet Spaces

Ample storage space is one thing that potential buyers may seek in a home. Insufficient storage can create the impression of a too-cluttered or small home, which is often a no for many buyers.

There are numerous creative designs for storage or closet spaces in underutilized areas. You can, for example, convert the area under staircases into a small closet or put shelves or custom cabinets in hallways or alcoves. For bedrooms, there could be a walk-in closet or bed frames with storage compartments.

These features not only provide you with additional space for storage in your home but also improve usability. The benefits of a well-organized home cannot be overemphasized since this type of environment attracts potential buyers who are willing to pay more in order to live in a more practical space.

Use Strategic Paint Choices

One of the simplest ways to transform and modernize a space is by giving it a fresh coat of paint. A relatively cheap renovation could help you greatly improve the attractiveness of your residence.

In the choice of paint colors, it is wise to go with neutral hues. Even though bold and bright colors can show your style, they may not be attractive to many buyers. Whites, greys, and beiges attract the largest spectrum of users – these colors are easier to match up with interior styles and furniture colors. They also create an illusion of larger and brighter spaces, which is more welcoming.

But neutral does not have to be boring. Make your interiors interesting using different shades and textures within the same color family. Additionally, saturation of the paint should also be considered. The most commonly used are satin and semi-gloss finishes since these alternatives are easier to maintain and last longer.

Get the Most Value Out of Your Renovations

Renovating your home can be exciting, but you shouldn’t forget that not all renovations will increase the value of the house. When planning a renovation, you should consider current trends while also looking at your budget. This could protect you from overspending on unnecessary improvements and also help you to identify which renovation techniques will give you the best return on investment.

MEET MICHAEL ALLADAWI

Michael Alladawi, CEO & Founder of Revive Real Estate, is a Southern California real estate veteran with a proven track record as a builder, investor, and respected home flipper. Michael created Revive Real Estate to share his industry knowledge and help homeowners maximize their profits when selling their homes. Michael’s passion for his work is as big as his desire to create lasting partnerships. For Michael, it all comes down to how much value one offers, both in business and life relationships.

Discover the Latest Insight, News and Investment Strategies at Realty411’s Investor Summit in the Central Coast of California

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Investors, did you know that the Central Coast (Santa Maria / Santa Barbara) was recently named the #1 EMERGING MARKET in the entire United States? Yes, this is correct. We are sitting on a gold mine right here in the Central Coast.

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Join us for exciting news, insight and networking at Realty411’s new in-person investor summit in one of the most beautiful areas of California, the Central Coast. Our special one-day conference will host incredible educators from around the country, who are ready to share their valuable insight with our guests.

Guests will enjoy coffee, some breakfast treats, wonderful networking and MORE!

Now is the moment to grasp this opportunity — the chance to network with sophisticated investors from California and around the country. The event begins promptly at 9:00 AM.

Some of our top educators for the day include:

Jeremy Rubin, The Friendly Flipper
Rusty Tweed, TFS Properties
Paul Wilkins, Probate Real Estate Expert
Mario Estrada, Central Coast REIA
Linda Pliagas, Realty411.com
and more!

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Be sure to pencil this date now and join us in-person to gain specialized insight and knowledge. The information shared on this day could catapult your portfolio to new levels. Discover our new property portal, our VIP perks, plus connect with new and past industry resources.

This one-day conference has something for everyone regardless of their experience level in real estate. Join this memorable day and receive knowledge for a lifetime.

  • Learn from Leaders & Industry Pros
  • Meet Local PLUS Out-of-Area Investors
  • NON-Stop Tips for Real Estate Success
  • Bring Lots of Business Cards

BE SURE TO RSVP HERE:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/767703691407?aff=oddtdtcreator

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411Expo.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

New Research Reveals March as the Top Month to List Properties and Rentals

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  • A new study has identified the time of the year Americans are keenest to move – and March is the most popular month.
  • The study analyzed Google searches around property and rental sites to reveal the best time to put your home on the market or start renting.
  • Colorado is named as the state looking to move the most, whereas Alaskans are happiest staying put in their current homes.
  • An expert shares their advice on the benefits of using a storage unit to make your move run as smoothly as possible.

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New research has revealed March is when sellers and landlords should list their properties to receive the most interest.

The research, pulled together by online self-storage finder Storage.com analyzed nationwide and regional Google search volume for keywords related to real-estate sites – such as Zillow and Trulia – to determine the time of year properties and rentals are most in demand.

The added financial pressure caused by the current economic situation might deter some from moving, but for others, it might motivate them to take the plunge – whether this is driven by an urge to get onto the property ladder or because tenants want to find somewhere more affordable.

Whatever the reason, U.S. searches for for-sale and rental listings reached a whopping 476,050,700 by the end of last year, peaking in March with a total of 44,698,660 – 13% more than the monthly average of 39,670,892.

This indicates sellers and landlords should make any final touches to their properties over the next few weeks to be ready to list by month’s end, as interest could be about to surge again.

Enthusiasm around moving dropped as 2023 came to a close, with searches falling 20% below the monthly average in December to 31,662,730. Americans didn’t appear eager to change homes in November either, as the month recorded the second-lowest volume at 33,623,290.

This is perhaps because the excitement of the festivities drew attention away from searching for somewhere new to live, suggesting sellers and landlords will have the worst luck if they list during the holiday period.

The next most popular month is July at 44,097,760 – 11% above the monthly average – followed by August at 43,828,170, so owners are best off advertising their properties sooner rather than later if they want a deal underway, otherwise they may have to wait until the next rush in summer.

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As well as analyzing nationwide Google search volume, the study looked at it on a regional level to identify the states where sellers and landlords are most likely to find potential buyers and renters, with Colorado proving to be the most eager to relocate this year.

The stage averaged 14,414 searches per 100k residents, a fifth (21%) higher than the national average of 11,869 (per 100k residents).

Florida is the second state most wanting to uproot, with 13,985 searches per 100k – 18% above the US average. In third is Arizona, which is still 16% higher at 13,782 per 100k, meaning listings may still receive higher response rates there than in most states.

The Ten States Most Interested in Moving

Commenting on the findings, Chuck Gordon, CEO of Storable, the parent company of Storage.com, says: “Now that Americans have settled back into their everyday routines and bank balances are starting to recover after a tight January, it’s likely those that were home hunting beforehand will return to it – and many others may start looking too if they
set moving as a goal for 2024.

“If the trend spotted last year repeats itself, prospective homeowners are going to increase their research for potential homes again next month, so there’s not too much time for budding sellers and landlords to get their properties up to scratch and capitalize on the demand.

“Finding the right place to live can seem like the biggest challenge of the process at the time, however it’s only the first hurdle. While it’s near impossible to remove all stress from a move, beginning packing as soon as things are in motion can seriously ease the headache.

“You’ll be surprised how quickly time can creep up on you, and suddenly you have most of your house to pack still. However, it can take weeks upon weeks before you receive a moving date – sometimes even months – and living among boxes can add to the sense of chaos. If you can, use a storage unit to hold non-essential items.

“That way, there’s less loading and unloading to do on the big day. You can unpack and set up everything you need to use immediately, then add in the extras at your own pace, finding the right spot for them rather than just shoving them anywhere in a rush to feel sorted.”

Data was gathered via Google Keyword Planner, which provides nationwide and state-specific search volume behind moving-related terms, keywords, and sites. All findings were scaled against local populations to get a ‘per 100k residents’ search rate.

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411Expo.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

How to Minimize Risks and Maximize Gains

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By Rick Tobin

Between January 2020 and present day, U.S. home prices rose a staggering +47%, per S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. Are these price trends likely to keep rising at the same pace or not?

How is it possible that the reported published inflation rates are declining while home prices and home unaffordability rates are increasing at the same time?

Will home prices decrease, flatten, or increase later here in 2024? The answer partly depends on whether the home listing inventory supply rapidly increases or decreases. It’s all supply and demand economics at the true core.

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Let’s take a closer look at some eye-opening housing, inflation, and jobs numbers:

  • Before the Fed started raising rates in 2022, a $2,000 monthly housing budget would have bought a home costing more than $400,000. Today, a $2,000 monthly household budget gets $295,000 or less.
  • Existing home sales between 1998 and 2007 averaged 6 million per year. Through October 2023, the annual home selling pace was closer to 3.79 million housing units.
  • Over the past 50 years (1973 – 2023), home prices rose by nearly 1,300% as compared with a 610% gain in the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
  • The inflation-adjusted hourly work wage has increased by just a measly 1% over the past 50 years (not an annual 1% increase, but just a 1% total gain over and above 1973’s wages in 2023 at a 1/50th of 1% increase per year average).
  • By comparison, the inflation-adjusted median home price has gained 100% over the past 50 years. As a result, real home prices have increased by more than 100 times (or 100x) the real wage gains.

Sources: CPI, Federal Reserve, and ZeroHedge

To be able to afford the median-priced home of $433,100 in late 2023, a household needed an annual income of roughly $166,600. However, the median household nationwide earns just $74,580, which is only 45% of the recommended amount.

By comparison, the median-priced home in California reached almost $860,000 in recent months. This is almost double the national median-priced home average.

As it relates to the lock-in effect, it does not matter too much if the homeowner’s mortgage rate is 6%, 4%, or 2% if they lose their job and main source of income. Foreclosures will likely rapidly increase this year as the true unemployment numbers skyrocket, sadly. It then creates a downward spiral for the neighboring homeowners as future foreclosures become the latest sales comps while creating more upside-down homes with negative equity. Later, more underwater homeowners will walk away if they have no equity to protect.

The latest house payment ($62,165) as a percentage of household income ($94,964) number ratio is 65.46% here in California ($62,165/$94,964 = 65.46%).

Approximately 60% of all homes owned in America are owned by people over the age of 50. Average home prices across the nation have increased 45%+ since the pandemic declaration back in March 2020. At some point, more older Americans will likely list their homes for sale to take their gains and to downsize at the same time while pushing the home listing inventory numbers higher.

If you have cash or access to third-party loans or equity partners, there will be some incredible buying opportunities this year and beyond.

Water Damage and Extreme Weather Swings

It’s getting increasingly difficult to obtain insurance for both owner-occupied and rental properties. A mortgaged residential or commercial real estate property is required to have sufficient amounts of insurance coverage, or the lender may consider it to be the equivalent of a mortgage default that would later lead to a foreclosure filing.

The #1 cause of damage to homes is usually excess water from rainstorms, heavy snowfall, floods, leaky roofs, or broken pipes. Fewer than 2% of Californians have flood insurance coverage for their homes. The horrific flooding in San Diego last month will likely cause significant losses for residential and commercial real estate properties as well as push insurance premiums skywards for local San Diego County and statewide residents.

Florida is #1 for the highest annual homeowners insurance premiums that are near $9,270. How much worse will it get after hurricane season begins?

Please make sure that you have multiple insurance coverage options from your preferred insurance broker just in case you receive a cancellation notice in your mailbox in the near future.

Commercial Real Estate

Upwards of 44% of office buildings nationwide with a mortgage are now claimed to be upside-down with negative equity here near the start of 2024. Later this year, the negative equity numbers should keep rising. How will this potentially impact banks and the overall US economy later this year and next?

CNBC recently published this article entilted vacant office spaces on the rise, with over 100 million square feet available in Manhattan.

This 100 million square foot number is equivalent to 40 vacant Empire State Buildings. Occupancy rates for office buildings in that region continue to remain under 50%. How many of these empty offices will later be converted to residential units?

Blackstone, the world’s largest owner of commercial real estate and a spinoff of BlackRock, is walking away from some of their distressed and upside-down commercial properties.

Year-over-year office building price percentage losses (’22 – ’23)
1. San Francisco: -58.9%
2. Chicago: -48.3%
3. San Jose: -48.0%
4. Philadelphia: -45.1%
5. Los Angeles: -44.6%
6. Orange County, CA: -38.4%
7. Dallas/Ft. Worth: -37.6%
8. New York: -37.3%
9. Austin: -31.5%
10. Boston: -24.2%

Source: Green Street News (data for all office sales, not just for Blackstone deals)

There are another one million new rentals coming to market by 2025 over and above the 1.2 million new apartment units that were built over the past three years, according to REjournals. Will this drive down rental prices even more due to excess supply?

Banks

Between 2017 and 2023, more than 10,000 bank branches closed nationwide. From January 1, 2023 through October 19, 2023, banks fired 20,000 employees. Yet, an additional 42,000 bank employees were let go in the final 72 days of the year between October 20th and December 31st for a grand total of 62,000 bank layoffs in 2023. Will these numbers accelerate in 2024?

Next month on March 11th, the Federal Reserve is terminating their “safety net” for many banks that’s called the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). After the financial system almost collapsed last year in March 2023, it was the BTFP bailout programs that possibly prevented bank runs after many banks became technically insolvent. On March 12th, private money may become quite popular as a backup lending solution because fewer banks may be able to lend to even their most creditworthy clients.

The banking dominoes continue to fall…

The push towards the “Basel III Endgame” banking regulation, which requires banks with assets over $100 billion to set aside more capital or cash reserves while driving down their ability to lend, is almost here.

Basel is a reference to the city in Switzerland where the world’s superbank, named the Bank for International Settlements, is located. They govern all central banks worldwide, including the Federal Reserve. We may see an increasing number of bank closures and mergers this year and next, partly due to these new regulations.

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China’s Defaulting Real Estate Marketplace

Here comes the next potential Asian Contagion event and derivatives debt tsunami from Evergrande (3333.HK stock symbol – they were once China’s largest real estate developer) as I’ve been writing about for several years. Country Garden, also ranked as high as the #1 largest real estate developer in China, is having their own serious financial challenges as well. It could force many Chinese investors to sell off their US Treasury holdings, which, in turn, may drive the 10-year Treasury yield and corresponding 30-year fixed mortgage rates higher.

January 2024 was somewhat reminiscent of the Russian financial crisis (stocks, bonds, and currency implosions) that spread to Asia (aka Asian Contagion) and South America back in 1998. At the same time, the derivatives investments held by Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) were so volatile and at risk that they ran out of money while almost taking down the world’s entire financial system at the same time.

Several large financial institutions were asked by the Federal Reserve to put upwards of $100 million each to save LTCM’s derivatives bets so that the financial system wouldn’t collapse. The only investment firms that refused to bail out LTCM in 1998 were Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. Ten years later in 2008, they were the first big investment firms to implode as the Credit Crisis (primarily related to a frozen global derivatives market) worsened and were not bailed out either, ironically.

Never forget that the global bond and currency markets absolutely dwarf all stock markets combined. Get your popcorn ready and keep a close eye on financial institutions in China, Russia, Germany (Deutsche Bank, especially), and here in the U.S.

Jobs Layoffs and Declining Cash Reserves

Job layoffs accelerated +136% in just one month between January 2024 and December 2023. Cash reserves held at banks are near all-time record lows right now. A recent survey found that 60% of the U.S. population has $500 or less in their checking accounts. Just 12% of the U.S. population has $2,001 dollars or more in their checking accounts, as per GoBankingRates.

Ballooning Corporate Debt

The U.S. corporate loan maturity amounts that ballooned or will be ballooning or coming all due and payable by the following year-end dates:

  • December 2023: $230 billion
  • December 2024: $790 billion
  • December 2025: $1.070 trillion
  • December 2026: $1.105 trillion
  • December 2027: $1.055 trillion
  • December 2028: $1.240 trillion
  • December 2029: $802 billion

Many corporations will be forced to refinance their debt at much higher rates while increasing their costs and decreasing their profits. As a result, more corporations will likely look to reduce their monthly costs, which may include increased job layoffs, sadly.

Between October 2019 and April 2023, there were more jobs created for foreign-born workers than for native American workers, as per ZeroHedge. My guess is that the foreign worker percentages have increased at an even faster pace between May 2023 and January 2024. In 2023, there were more illegal immigrant crossings in the USA each month than the total number of monthly births for US residents.

Government and Consumer Debt

According to Michael Snyder’s article entitled The United States Has The Biggest Government In The History Of The World By A Very Wide Margin, let’s take a look at some of these published numbers:

  • Upwards of 3 million people work for the federal government.
  • The federal government spent 6.13 trillion dollars in 2023. This figure is larger than the GDP of every nation on the planet except for the U.S. and China.
  • More than 70 million Americans are on Social Security.
  • More than 65 million Americans are on Medicare.
  • More than 81 million Americans are on Medicaid.
  • More than 41 million Americans are on food stamps.

Consumer and government spending trends: US households racked up $17.29 trillion in record debt last year (mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, etc.). The federal US debt crossed another milestone recently, surpassing $34 trillion. By comparison in 2009, US debt was only $10.6 trillion. Between 1980 and 1990, the total overall federal debt only increased by $2 trillion.

We’ve borrowed:
* $1 trillion over the last 3 months
* $2 trillion over the last 6 months
* $11 trillion over the last 4 years

In the previous housing crash here in California (2007 to 2012), average home prices fell to a still all-time state record amount of -41.7% from peak to trough.

  • Nearly 30% of Americans are behind on one or more debt payments.
  • 56 million Americans had unpaid credit card balances for more than a year.
  • 40% of student loan borrowers have still not made a payment even after the recent October 1, 2023 student loan payment restart date after three years of C-19 forbearance.
  • Just one late payment can drop a FICO credit score between 80 and 180 points.

Out of Chaos Comes Opportunity

Inflation is likely to remain elevated here in 2024. Historically, the ownership of real estate has proven to be an exceptional hedge against inflation while rising at a similar pace or higher each year.

With consumer debts at all-time record highs and credit card APR rates hovering between 28% and 30%+ and early paycheck loans reaching as high as 330% to 400% APR rates, it’s very important to limit your spending, set aside as much cash as possible if this may be an option for you, and keep your eyes focused on potential real estate bargains in your region.

During volatile economic time periods like seen back during the Great Depression (1929 – 1939), the Savings and Loan Crisis (‘80s and ‘90s), and the Credit Crisis or Great Financial Recession (2007 to 2012), there were incredible buying opportunities for discounted real estate. Please stay focused on your goals and targets rather than on the temporary obstacles.

Rick Tobin

Rick Tobin has worked in the real estate, financial, investment, and writing fields for the past 30+ years. He’s held eight (8) different real estate, securities, and mortgage brokerage licenses to date and is a graduate of the University of Southern California. He provides creative residential and commercial mortgage solutions for clients across the nation. He’s also written college textbooks and real estate licensing courses in most states for the two largest real estate publishers in the nation; the oldest real estate school in California; and the first online real estate school in California. Please visit his website at Realloans.com for financing options and his new investment group at So-Cal Real Estate Investors for more details. 

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Real Estate Success with Flip and Dani Lynn Robison – Entrepreneurs, Authors and Speakers

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Investors, it’s time for another exclusive Realty411 live webinar! Don’t miss the opportunity to learn exclusive insight, tips and strategies by some of the top real-estate investors in the nation. On this exciting LIVE webinar, Entrepreneurs, Authors and National Speakers, Flip and Dani Lynn Robinson, share incredible journey and insight with our guests.

This online presentation is engaging and is designed to catapult our guests to the next level of real-estate success! Flip and Dani are founders and owners of The Freedom Family of Companies, a vertically integrated investment firm with:

** Over $30 Million Dollars Raised
** Over $22 Million in Assets and over 900 Units Under Management

On this exclusive and LIVE webinar, Flip and Dani Lynn will divulge top secrets and top-of-mind topics, such as:

>>> The important Investor’s Guide to Real Estate

>>> 7 Mindset Mistakes Blocking Your Breakthrough

>>> Simplified Strategies for Building Wealth

>>> How They Made $2M in 21 Months Without Losing Sleep or Selling Friends

>>> Finding Your Financial Freedom – How the 1% Think, Invest, and Design Their Lives

As a special treat for the upcoming Valentine’s Day festivities, Flip and Dani Lynn will also share a special segment for couples. Discover strategies for working and living the wild real-estate investing life with your spouse or loved.

This special presentation for entrepreneurial couples is titled: “Tips on How Couples Can Work Together Towards Real Estate Success.” Don’t miss this special webinar, online seats are LIMITED, so be sure to register today!

Top Agent Sana Saleh Returns to Rodeo Realty Inc.

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Rodeo Realty Inc. proudly announces the return of top real estate agent, Sana Saleh. With an impressive track record and a commitment to excellence, Sana Saleh brings back her extensive experience, unmatched dedication, and a proven history of success back to Rodeo Realty.

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In a statement regarding her return, Sana Saleh emphasized the pivotal factors that drew her back to Rodeo Realty. “In 2021 and 2022, I sold about $40 million each year and had reached the Founder’s Club level, the second highest level at Rodeo Realty! I was recruited by everyone. I left Rodeo for another company with high expectations, but quickly realized that the support, guidance, advertising, and technology were not what I was accustomed to. There was very little help from management. The meetings were not informative, and I felt that I was not being kept up to date with new laws, marketing techniques, economic conditions, and industry changes. I felt on my own. I gave it a year but there was no comparison to what I received at Rodeo Realty. I returned home to Rodeo, and I am excited to be back!”

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Sana Saleh’s decision to return underscores Rodeo Realty’s commitment to providing their agents with unparalleled support, cutting-edge technology, and a collaborative environment. With her proven success and dedication to client satisfaction, Saleh defines the company’s principle goal of setting the highest standards in real estate service!

Learn live and in real-time with Realty411. Be sure to register for our next virtual and in-person events. For all the details, please visit Realty411Expo.com or our Eventbrite landing page, CLICK HERE.

Stratton Equities: Pioneering the Future of NON-QM Mortgages

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PARSIPPANY, N.J.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–In an ever-evolving mortgage lending landscape, NON-QM mortgage loans are emerging as the industry’s future, providing opportunities for a wider range of borrowers to achieve their homeownership and investment goals. Stratton Equities, the Leading Nationwide Private Money and NON-QM Mortgage Lender, has been at the forefront of this revolution for the past six years, setting the pace for other companies to follow.

NON-QM mortgage loans, short for non-qualified mortgage loans, have gained significant traction in recent years as a viable alternative to traditional QM (qualified mortgage) mortgage loans, which come with stringent government regulations and eligibility criteria. Recent statistics reveal that only a small percentage of Americans qualify for QM loans due to these stringent requirements.

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According to industry data, the demand for NON-QM mortgage loans has steadily increased yearly, with a notable surge in the past few years. In 2022 alone, NON-QM loans accounted for a significant portion of the mortgage market, surpassing expectations. It has been estimated that one in four loans will go NON-QM in the near future.

Stratton Equities recognized the potential of NON-QM loans six years ago, positioning themselves as pioneers in private money lending, specifically NON-QM mortgage loans. This early recognition of market trends has been the cornerstone of their continued success.

Michael Mikhail, CEO and Founder of Stratton Equities, emphasized their focus on generating NON-QM leads and their commitment to offering a wide range of lending programs, including NON-QM, DSCR, Hard Money, and No-Doc Loans. He stated, “Our aim has always been to provide solutions that cater to a broader spectrum of borrowers. Stratton Equities had the foresight six years ago to recognize the market’s direction, which is why we were at the forefront of NON-QM mortgage lending. This serves as a foundation for our continued success.”

NON-QM mortgage loans are designed to serve most Americans who do not meet the strict eligibility criteria of QM loans. These loans facilitate home ownership, second home ownership, and investment properties, allowing income generation and wealth building for a more diverse range of borrowers. Contrary to misconceptions, NON-QM mortgage loans often offer competitive rates, making them attractive.

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Traditional lenders like banks and credit unions primarily offer QM loans for one-to-four-family investment properties. However, these loans have heavy documentation requirements and lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, typically capping at 70%. Stratton Equities stands out by providing NON-QM mortgage loans for such properties with easier qualifications, lower documentation requirements, and higher LTV ratios, currently at 80%.

Stratton Equities also recommends closing within an LLC for investment properties due to tax and security advantages. Despite some lingering stigma associated with NON-QM mortgage loans, they often result in lower rates, higher LTVs, and streamlined documentation, making them a practical choice for borrowers.

Educating borrowers about the advantages of NON-QM mortgage loans and dispelling misconceptions is vital. Stratton Equities is committed to leading the way in providing these beneficial lending options and believes in the potential for growth and success in this market. Their loan officers benefit from the advantages offered by the company, including a consistent stream of leads, as exemplified by recent hires who have quickly achieved success within the organization.

Stratton Equities invites individuals and investors to explore the world of NON-QM mortgage loans and discover the possibilities for achieving their financial goals. For more information, please visit www.strattonequities.com.

For more information about Stratton Equities, please visit their website at https://www.strattonequities.com. Follow Stratton Equities on social media on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube @StrattonEquities, LinkedIn @stratton-equities, and Twitter @Strattonequity.

Contacts
Kelly Bennett, Director of PR
Stratton Equities
[email protected]
(949) 463-6383

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From Homelessness to Multi-Millionaire: Michael Mikhail Leads Stratton Equities in Celebrating 5 Years of Success and Achievement

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(New Jersey, July 25, 2023) – Stratton Equities, the Leading Nationwide Private Money and NON-QM Mortgage Lender, proudly celebrates its fifth anniversary. Since its launch in 2018, Stratton Equities has experienced significant growth and expanded its operations. The company has successfully established itself as a prominent player in the real estate investment and lending industry under the visionary leadership of its Founder and CEO, Michael Mikhail.

Mikhail encountered numerous challenges on his path to becoming a prominent figure in the industry. Following a five-year journey spanning 19 countries, he returned to the United States in 2017, homeless and without financial resources. However, his unwavering determination to reshape his future propelled him forward as he drew upon his extensive background in mortgage lending from 2003 to 2010. He deliberately leveraged that experience and explored opportunities within the mortgage lending industry. He faced numerous obstacles, including a lack of managerial support, limited program options, a shortage of leads, inadequate training or technology, and unhealthy work culture. This toxic environment was an industry-wide issue, contributing to a high turnover rate and low production among loan officers.

Stratton Equities was born as a response to these challenges. Mikhail’s vision was to overhaul the methods used by the mortgage lending industry by incorporating more programs and generating an influx of organic inbound leads. Mikhail achieved remarkable success, making $1.3 million within six months of launching the company.

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Due to Mikhail’s unwavering dedication to delivering exceptional service and driving success, Stratton Equities is a leading player in the private money and NON-QM mortgage lending industry. With its customer-first approach, state-of-the-art technology, and extensive expertise, Stratton Equities has expanded its market reach and aims to achieve an impressive target of $1.2 billion in closed loan volume annually, or $100 million monthly.

Reflecting on the milestone, Mikhail commented, “As we celebrate, I am humbled and grateful for the incredible journey we have embarked upon. It has been a testament to our unwavering commitment, relentless dedication, and the trust our clients and partners place in us. This milestone is a celebration of our accomplishments and a reflection of the transformative power of perseverance and innovation in the lending industry. We have expanded our reach, refined our strategies, and surpassed expectations each year. As we look back on our journey, we are energized by the opportunities that lie ahead. Together, we will continue to shape the future of real estate financing and empower dreams. This is only the beginning, and the best is yet to come.”

One of the many successes that Mikhail created for Stratton Equities is the unique programs, lead generation model, and loan portfolio milestones. Mikhail has revolutionized lead generation and digital marketing with his innovative platform at Stratton Equities. Unlike traditional private money lenders relying on loan officers to hunt for leads through cold calls and networking, Mikhail’s system brings leads to the company daily, eliminating manual prospecting. This powerful tool generates an abundance of organic leads, surpassing the strategies of other private money-lending companies and propelling the company’s performance while enabling aggressive hiring.

Moreover, Mikhail’s platform provides loan officers with access to the largest collection of nationwide private money and NON-QM mortgage loan programs. This comprehensive offering allows them to effectively cater to the needs of real estate investors, entrepreneurs, and diverse mortgage borrowers.

Stratton Equities has received recognition within the industry for its exceptional services and expertise, as well as for Mikhail’s success. In 2021, Forbes Magazine included Mikhail in their “The Next 1000” list, celebrating individuals redefining what it means to build and run businesses today. NJBIZ, New Jersey’s leading business journal, also recognized Stratton Equities as one of the Top 250 Privately Held Companies for 2021. They further honored Mikhail as one of their 2022 Leaders in Finance, and he was nominated for the prestigious Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year program.

Stratton Equities consistently achieves high levels of customer satisfaction. Through its commitment to providing personalized solutions and exceptional customer service, the company has built a strong reputation for its client-centric approach. Many clients have praised Stratton Equities for its outstanding service, professionalism, and ability to secure funding quickly. One client, John S., commended the company for its efficient processing and dedication to finding the best loan options, expressing gratitude for their personalized approach that ensured his unique needs were met. Another client, Sarah L., emphasized the team’s expertise in navigating complex financial situations, stating that Stratton Equities provided her with the guidance and support needed to secure a loan for her real estate investment. These testimonials and many more highlight the company’s commitment to client satisfaction and its track record of delivering outstanding results.

In addition to client testimonials, Stratton Equities has received positive feedback on reputable platforms such as Indeed and Glassdoor. Several employees have shared their experiences working for the company, consistently praising the supportive and collaborative work environment and highlighting the company’s dedication to fostering professional growth and providing ample opportunities for career advancement. Employees also speak highly of the company’s management, describing them as knowledgeable, approachable, and committed to the team’s and clients’ success. This positive employee feedback further supports the notion that Stratton Equities excels in serving its clients and maintains a workplace culture that values and nurtures its employees.

Mikhail’s visionary leadership and persistent commitment have solidified Stratton Equities’ position as a trusted and innovative company with high expertise, cutting-edge technology, and a customer-centric approach.

For more information about Stratton Equities, please visit their website at https://www.strattonequities.com. Follow Stratton Equities on social media on Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube @StrattonEquities, LinkedIn @stratton-equities, and Twitter @Strattonequity.

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Michael Mikhail, CEO Stratton Equities

Michael Mikhail is the Founder and CEO of Stratton Equities, the nation’s leading hard money-lender to national real estate investors, with the largest variety of mortgage loans and programs nationwide.

Having launched Stratton Equities in early 2017, Michael has always been an entrepreneur and innovator in the real estate market, purchasing his first home at 19.

A serial entrepreneur with a foresight for business opportunities, Michael had a slew of small businesses prior to launching Stratton Equities. One of his most prolific ventures was a car wash connected to a gym he was affiliated with in Florida during 2001-2002 while attending college.

It wasn’t until he graduated from Florida State University with a degree in Business, that he officially joined the mortgage industry in 2003 and decided to travel to explore his options globally.

After travelling to 19 countries in 5 years, Michael knew two things; he wanted to start his own business and launch it in the United States. He knew that moving back to the states was the best place he could start something small and grow it into something infinite.

In 2017, Michael noticed how the mortgage industry had transformed after the regulations presented from 2008-2012, and knew it was time to set out something on his own, thus creating Stratton Equities.

Under Michael’s leadership, Stratton Equities has grown into one of the biggest leaders in the Mortgage and Real Estate industry across genres and platforms.

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