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Your June 2026 Residential Lending News

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By Michael Ryan

June 2026 Residential Perspective

As we cross into the peak summer buying season, the mainstream media is working overtime to capture your attention with sensational, anxiety-inducing economic headlines. But when you drill past the clickbait and look at what is actually happening under the hood, the data tells a much more stable—and encouraging—story for everyday home buyers.

Fruits of preparation & Smart Buying – Call us. Call now. Let’s separate the noise from the facts.

1. The Economy: Is AI Actually Carrying the U.S.?

The media wants you to believe artificial intelligence is single-handedly fueling the American economic engine. The truth? Very little of Q1’s revised 1.6% GDP growth (down from the initial 2% estimate) came from AI.

While big tech companies spent massively on data centers in the first quarter, much of that high-end equipment and chip inventory is imported. Because imports are subtracted from GDP, the surge of investment in AI was largely a wash—canceled out by the influx of imported AI equipment. The economy is doing okay, but it isn’t relying on AI alone. Furthermore, that spending spree is hitting a cost wall: electronic component prices have soared 19.1% year-over-year, communications gear is up 13.2%, and computer prices rose 8.2%. The tech sector is learning that the physical hardware behind the cloud is becoming incredibly expensive to sustain. Don’t let market speculators cause uncertainty—stay focused, stay grounded, and stay better prepared.

2. Inflation: “Soaring” or Steady?

The Headline: “War and tariffs fuel resurgent inflation, sending Fed’s preferred gauge soaring!”

The Reality: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s actual preferred gauge—came in lighter than expectations at 3.8% headline and 3.5% core year-over-year. Outside of shelter costs taking a brief, artificial two-month data hit (due to no report the previous month), these readings are remarkably calm. Calling a couple of tenths of a percent shift “soaring” is pure hyperbole.

Meanwhile, demand is cooling in sections of the real world: durable goods orders disappointed with a 1.1% drop, and the personal savings rate is taking it on the chin as families use savings and tax refunds to offset the stubborn, daily hammer of fuel prices.

3. Interest Rates & The Fed: A Clearer Lens on Inflation

With recent minor inflation upticks, some talking heads are warning of imminent rate hikes. To echo noted economist Elliot Eisenberg: “Talk of Fed rate hikes is insane. Home prices and rents—which make up over 33% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—are cooling. Wage growth continues to soften, and tariff-driven distortions will work through the system by winter.”

Furthermore, shifting perspectives at the central bank are bringing a more balanced lens to the real economy: the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE.

While official Core PCE currently stands at 3.3%, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean measure is running much closer to the target at 2.3%. By throwing out the most extreme monthly outliers—removing the highest 31% of price increases and the lowest 24% of price declines—this calculation filters out temporary distortions caused by factors like geopolitical energy shocks or investment spending surges. This provides a much clearer view of underlying, persistent inflation trends. Focusing on this trimmed mean measure strengthens a mathematically sound case for interest rate cuts once temporary global disruptions fade.

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4. The Labor Market: A Housing Win-Win

While earlier indicators hinted at extreme softening, the latest data shows a steadier underlying momentum. The private sector ADP report for May showed an increase of 122,000 jobs, signaling broad-based, healthy momentum across sectors. The headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll report delivered a major surprise, coming in at +172,000 jobs—shattering the market estimate of 85,000. More importantly, the previous two months’ data were revised upward by a combined 100,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held flat at 4.3% with an incremental decline, while underemployment (U-6) eased a tenth of a point as well.

How many jobs does the U.S. economy actually need to create each year right now? With a sub-replacement fertility rate and shifting net immigration baselines, macro analyst Jim Bianco postulates the answer may be closer to zero, with current U.S. expansion heavily driven by productivity (roughly 92% of growth) rather than raw headcount growth (8%).

Here is the win-win for housing: If job growth stays robust and continues to beat estimates, consumer purchasing power remains high. If headcount numbers stall while productivity takes the wheel, corporate strength remains insulated and the economy avoids a hard landing. Either way, housing demand has a rock-solid floor.

5. Consumer Debt: The Household Clean-Up

Consumers are actively adjusting their habits to manage high interest rates. Federal Reserve data reveals that credit card debt saw a pullback in the first quarter, meaning families are relying a bit less on cards to pay for daily life. Instead, they are aggressively focusing on paying down balances with sky-high APRs, which averaged a lofty 21.5% in the first quarter and are poised to stay there for a while.

Meanwhile, debt categories like mortgages, auto loans, and home equity lines of credit moved higher. While credit card and auto delinquency rates remain elevated, they flattened out in the first quarter of this year. The one outlier bearing close watch? Student loan delinquencies, which saw a sizable jump up to 10.3%.

– Loan Spotlight: The “Wealth Builder” First-Lien HELOC

To match these changing dynamics, we are highlighting a powerful financial tool designed for buyers and homeowners looking for maximum cash-flow efficiency.

Our Wealth Builder program is a specialized standalone first mortgage structured as an all-in-one Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC). It completely replaces your traditional 30-year fixed loan and functions as your new financial operating system:

• Your Mortgage IS Your Bank Account: When you open this loan, you get a new, fully integrated checking account through the lender. Your direct deposits, paychecks, and income flow straight into this new account.
• The Power of the Nightly Sweep: Every single night, the idle money sitting in your checking account is automatically “swept” onto your mortgage balance. Because mortgage interest accrues daily, this nightly drop in principal immediately reduces the daily interest you owe.
• Make Idle Income Work: We rarely spend our money the exact day it hits our account. Why let it sit idle in a standard bank earning zero when it can actively drive down your debt? When you need to pay bills, write checks, or make purchases, you do it directly out of this account against your line of credit. This is ideal for disciplined savers, self-employed business owners with variable cash flow, or anyone whose income sits idle in a checking account for weeks at a time before bills are paid.
• Streamlined & Fast: Because this program sits outside traditional rigid compliance tracks, it features a simplified fee sheet and no mandatory waiting periods to close.
• High Capacity: Available for primary residences, second homes, and investment properties with loan limits scaling up to $3,500,000.

Need a unique, interesting loan program? Always check with us. If you find yourself in need of special financing, have a friend who doesn’t quite fit into the conventional box, or hold crypto and want lenders willing to consider its value—Call today.

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The Silver Lining for Residential Real Estate

Despite the broader economic crosscurrents, the structural reality of housing hasn’t changed: we remain fundamentally under-built on housing units. The major surprise of the month comes from Cotality’s Home Price Insights report. National home values rose 0.4% in April, putting them up 0.3% year-over-year. While the year-to-date pace points to a modest 2.4% for the full year, Cotality is explicitly bullish that things will pick up. They are forecasting a 0.9% jump for May and have upgraded their year-ahead appreciation projections to 5.3% (up from 5.1% in their previous report).

Underneath that national average, look at how beautifully stable the market is performing:

• Flat & Predictable Pricing: The Single-Family Residence (SFR) median listing price has trended wonderfully flat since the third week of January, while median days on the market has actually ticked slightly lower in that same timeframe.
• The Inventory Deficit: Inventory levels remain extremely tight, with 35 states showing lower housing inventory than pre-pandemic levels.
• The Migration Paradox: Interestingly, the states seeing the highest percentages of inventory growth compared to pre-COVID baselines are the exact states experiencing the highest rates of positive in-migration. Before you buy, let’s drill down into your local markets to see how they compare to the general trend. We can help.

Market MetricCurrent StatusReal-World Takeaway
Q1 GDP (2nd Look)Revised down to 1.6%Softening caused by tech import drags and high mid-March oil prices.
May BLS Jobs+172,000 jobs (+100K revisions)Labor market remains robust; crushing initial low estimates.
Cotality ProjectionsForecasting 5.3% appreciationUnderlying housing demand remains structurally resilient.
Dallas Fed Trimmed MeanHolding at 2.3%Strips out wild outliers; signals core inflation is near target.
Avg. Credit Card APRLofty 21.5%Highlights why consumers are rapidly paying down high-interest cards.

What This Means For You — The Bottom Line

Each of us is on a unique path to homeownership. Note this key to success: early work secures a better range of options and control of timing when it comes to buying and financing a new home. Make this month your month to prepare. We can show you how to buy now and still enjoy future rate cuts.

What makes Mike Ryan special is in what we do. Our work begins and ends with you. We meet each person where they are, offering effective guidance leading to solid, stable, and actionable options. “Preparation and Patience” wins.

Call now for our first conversation. Let’s bring together financing options customized specifically for you. We look forward to meeting with you, whether on the phone or face-to-face, to talk through your thoughts and solutions with absolutely no surprises.

Find a financial professional who cares about you as their first priority. Call today or click below to schedule your consultation directly.

Click Here to Book Your Private Strategy Call
Explore more financial strategies for this market:
• How do the qualifying credit guidelines (like minimum FICO or housing history) for the Wealth Builder HELOC compare to a standard conventional loan?

Be well, be safe, and enjoy your family and friends.
Mike Ryan Residential & Commercial Lending Strategist
Connect with me at:

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Mortgage Broker.. for YOUR Life

P.S. In reading this, who comes to mind in need of trusted, valid information about money and finance? Help us help them. They will be glad you did and thank you.

Michael Ryan
Michael Ryan & Associates
4880 Stevens Creek Blvd # 200
San Jose, CA 95129

Financing, Location, Cost: Untangling the Real Estate Investor’s Conundrum

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By Michael Ryan

We’re diving into the three big questions swirling around real estate today: Financing, Location, and Cost. It’s like a three-legged stool – you need all three to stay balanced!

The Financing Frustration (and Opportunity)

Everyone’s talking about interest rates. During the COVID era, home loan rates dipped as low as the 2-3% range, while rates for fix-and-flip projects hovered around 7-8%. While those days are gone, and rates have increased, the market hasn’t collapsed. Let’s explore how higher rates can actually benefit buyers.  Yes, they’re elevated, but I haven’t seen the market implode like ’08. Instead of dwelling on the negative, let’s flip the script. Higher rates actually benefit buyers in a couple of ways:

  • Less Competition: Fewer multiple-offer wars. Remember those?  Both home buyers and rental property owners will benefit from non-war property price setting.  Think property taxes for carry cost basis.
  • Future Savings: Buy now, and if (as many expect) rates drop, you refinance and bam – instant positive change to your cash flow.  Always, not so fast.  Refinance can be good, yet always take into account the cost of refinancing and if done a number of years from now the potential impact of starting the loan term over again.
  • Creative Financing Options:  Seller financing and Subject to are 2 key ways to lower your carry costs.  Partnering with home sellers is another method where you can share the final upside (reduced market timing risk) with the seller.  I always remember my first broker trainers telling me that 50 % of something will always beat 100 % of nothing.
  • Relationships Matter:  Your lender should be more than just a transaction processor. All the conversations around the rest of the story, is why it’s essential to work with a lender who understands your long-term goals and can provide tailored solutions. Call us to discover how our approach goes beyond the transaction.”

Location, Location…Demographics!

Whether buying or renting, people go where they can afford. But it’s more than just price point. The demographics of a neighborhood dictate what you provide. It’s about lifestyle, community, and future growth potential.  Who will be your client; (e.g., age, income, family size, education level, employment).  And, where might you begin to find this information?  Start with Census Bureau, local government websites, real estate analytics platforms.

For example, investing in senior housing requires understanding factors like income levels, healthcare needs, and transportation options. Similarly, student housing investments hinge on enrollment trends, the proportion of international students, and housing preferences.

Flippers, think floor plans, bed/bath counts, and finishes. Landlords, it’s the quality of those fixtures and equipment.

Controversial Alert! Homebuyers will often compromise on fixture quality, but renters? That’s where long-term thinking pays off. Spending a few thousand more on fixtures that last 20 years? Might beat replacing the cheap stuff every few years. (Been there, done that!).

There’s nothing worse than a tenant walk-out revealing rusted bathroom fixtures, even with an exhaust fan! It’s not just the cost of replacement; it’s the time and hassle. Property managers, often at odds with owners, may not flag these issues, leading to lower-quality tenants and a cycle of neglect. This is something I experienced firsthand with an out-of-state apartment, and it ultimately impacted the sales price.

I recall the old Fram Oil Filter TV advertisement.  The tag line was:  “Pay me now, or Pay me later”

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Cost: Know Your End Game

Cost goes hand-in-hand with knowing your target end user. We’re talking details: garage door appeal, fencing, landscaping, roofing – even square footage. The more you nail down your ideal buyer or renter, the easier it is to reverse-engineer the project and budget.

This is where “boots on the ground” research is invaluable. Door-knocking and chatting with residents can reveal insights that online tools simply can’t provide. A small thank-you gift, like a lottery ticket or a $5 gift card, can go a long way in securing a few minutes of their time. Imagine uncovering a valuable lead or realizing the neighborhood isn’t the right fit. That knowledge is power!

Putting It All Together

The goal is a clear, set-in-stone plan: timelines, costs, the whole shebang. Market and economic jitters? Those are just adjustments, not roadblocks. Think of them like time extensions. A 6-month project now takes 9? A 45-day resale stretches to 90? Adjust those line items!

Calculate your carry costs (daily, weekly, monthly – whatever works). This feeds back into your reverse-engineered offer price. It’s a blend of art and science, and you can’t have one without the other. (Trust me, I’ve learned that the hard way!).

  • Rental Tip:  Tile floors. Resale? Hardwood (but maybe not the super-soft, scratch-prone kind!).

Match your location, costs, and assumptions, and the financing? That becomes a tool, not a hurdle.

At this stage, the analysis blends the science (the numbers) with the art (your on-the-ground research). With your end-user and target property identified, the next step is to determine the costs and time required to transform the starting point into your desired end result. Calculate all line-item expenses, including resale or refinance costs, and factor in your desired profit. This gives you a bottom line to work with when making your offer. Remember to leave room for negotiation, as those strategies are extensive and can be tailored to your specific goals: low-ball, at-asking price, or over-asking.

A couple of the common challenges I see and hear about:  Lack of clarity on where you are going, resulting in a mis-diagnosis.  Yes, a common medical malady that appears on your profit and loss sheet.  Time is the number one mis-diagnosis.  Number two is construction costs.  Do you have room for one hit?  Rarely is there room for both.  I always assume the sellers are not blind.

Insurance Woes?

Yeah, insurance costs are scary. Here’s an old trick: provide insurance quotes at open houses (like those lender rate sheets back in the day).

  • Pro Tip:  Agents will say they need buyer info for a quote. Easy fix: use your info, as if you were the buyer. Remove the obstacle, help the market move, and give your insurance buddies some leads!

More Than Just a Lender

We’re not just here to fund deals. We ask questions. We have conversations. This article? Just a tiny peek into the depth of knowledge and insights we offer.

Our conversations often focus on challenges, because mistakes cost money. While we celebrate successes (and every financing deal is a success in its own way!), we also take a ‘devil’s advocate’ approach to identify potential pitfalls. Ultimately, you choose your path, and we’re there to support you every step of the way. That’s our commitment.

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The “Bad” News? The Noise!

The only “bad” thing I see is the negativity online and on mainstream media. Not here! We’re here to keep you on track, your investments safe, and your growth steady.

We offer traditional residential financing in CA, OR, TX, FL, and NC, plus non-traditional residential, commercial, and small business financing nationwide. Call today – we’re ready for our next conversation!

MEET MICHAEL RYAN & ASSOCIATES
Your Trusted Commercial Loan Partner

We empower you to achieve your goals with tailored commercial property loan solutions. Whether you’re investing in high-end commercial real estate or expanding your portfolio, our experienced team will guide you through every step of the process. We ensure you have a clear understanding of your options, allowing you to make confident, informed decisions. Let us help turn your business aspirations into successful investments.
https://michael-ryan.com/

Are You Ready to Level Up Your Game in Real Estate and Life? Then Join Us…

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Learn all the strategies that top real estate investors use to keep more money, protect their assets, and improve their lives. We have important information from leading experts in the financial and real estate sectors ready to share their insight with our guests at Realty411’s Invest with Confidence Summit on Saturday, July 19th, 2025.

Joining us for a special day of education and insight starting at 9 AM are savvy real estate educators, such as Michael Ryan, a top Mortgage Broker. Michael is ready to provide timely as well as time-tested advice.

Michael Ryan,

Mortgage Broker

Learn More About Michael:

35 years primary focus financing on real estate secured property

25 years – build, subdivide, notes, bulk, rehab, reposition, etc

Education focused, armchair economist.

He will share a bullet-point presentation on:

  • Myths vs. Facts
  • The Build
  • Clarifying Investment Plans
  • Why Each Person / Plan is Different
  • The Need for Agnostic Advice