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What Lies Ahead for Real Estate and the Lending Market in the Coming Months

April 24, 2023/in News/by dulce

By Edward Brown

Many fear a recession looming in the coming months that will negatively affect real estate prices. In a typical recession, house prices usually drop. According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, housing prices dropped in four out of five recessions that have occurred since 1980. During those recessions, house prices dipped on average about 5% for each year the economy remained down; However, in the Great Recession in 2008, the average price dropped by nearly 13%.

During the recession of 1980, inflation started to skyrocket, much like we have been experiencing in this past 12 months. However, there are vast differences between the recession of 1980 and the possible one to come. First, the population in the United States in 1980 was just over 226.5 million people. Today, there are over 333 million people according to the US Census Bureau. Everybody needs a place to live, and supply has not kept up with demand. Many cities have dissuaded builders by imposing large fees as well as taking too long to issue permits. This could be due to downsizing of government staff, but another phenomenon that was not as prevalent in 1980 as compared to today is that neighbors have a lot more say in what goes in their neighborhood. When there are too many roadblocks, many builders shift to fix and flip.

In addition, there is still a large supply chain issue left over from Covid. Also, costs of materials and labor has substantially increased. Lastly, finding qualified trade workers has been quite a challenge for builders.

One of the major differences in the early 1980s as compared to today is the interest rate on mortgages. By 1981, mortgage rates were as high as 19%. Although current rates at 6% seem incredibly high [since they bottomed out in the 2+% range during Covid], they are still less than a third of what they were in 1981. It is true that house prices have substantially increased since 1981, but so have wages.

Some factors that affect the demand side of home purchases are that millennials are coming into the market in droves. These same millennials
witnessed their parents’ difficulties during the Great Recession, but enough time has passed, and millennials are now in positions of starting families as well as becoming a strong impact in the workforce.

Probably one of the most overlooked area of why demand should at least come close to supply [to keep residential real estate prices relatively stable] is that there were millions of homeowners who refinanced when rates were very low. These homeowners will not be able to replace their current mortgage rate for the foreseeable future.

Thus, there has to be a compelling reason for these people to sell their house. Currently, the Fed is trying to tame inflation by raising interest rates. This has started to work, albeit slow and not strong enough. Anyone buying groceries will say that true inflation is closer to 15% rather than the 6% the government is touting.

Raising the interest rates usually causes a recession, as costs of production are impacted. If a recession then causes interest rates to decline [due to lack of demand and falling inflation], we may see the refinance market pick up again and more mobility of home buyers driving up demand again. So far, there has been a slowdown in sales volume. This, in combination with slower refinances, has caused many mortgage companies to lay off workers. For the private lending industry, this should cause volume to move in their direction.

Private lending use to be the last resort for many borrowers, as the costs were higher for these borrowers; however, with the smaller pool of lenders due to the layoffs as well as mainstream banks making it harder for borrowers to qualify due to the uncertainty of the economy, private lenders have moved up the chain with regard to the choice of lenders for those needing to borrow. In addition, we may likely see more bank regulations due to the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

The Fed wants to exude stability in the market, so they will probably clamp down on what banks are allowed to lend on as we saw the Great Recession produce new regulations via Dodd-Frank.

There may be a drop in real estate prices over the coming months, but it most likely will not be what we saw in the Great Recession, as that was a credit issue, where the banks were too lax in giving loans to borrowers who may not have had the income to repay. Current regulations make lending much stricter, so borrowers have to show the ability to repay the loan. Thus, even a coming recession should not see a tremendous drop in real estate prices.

ABOUT EDWARD BROWN

Additionally, Edward has published many articles in various financial magazines as well as been an expert on CNN, in addition to appearing as an expert witness and consultant in cases involving investments and analysis of financial statements and tax returns.

Edward Brown, Host
The Best of Investing on KTRB 860AM
The Answer on Saturdays at 8pm
and Sports Econ 101 on Saturdays
at 1pm on SiriusXM channel 217
21 Pepper Way
San Rafael, CA 94901
[email protected]

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3 Tips for Finding Balance Between Building Marketing Momentum and Minimizing Expenses Amidst a Recession

March 13, 2023/in Marketing Strategies, News/by dulce

By Valeh Nazemoff

Lead economists predict a recession and therefore slower economic activity.

While this idea can bring flashbacks of 2008 and mounting worry for business owners, the best course of action is preparation.

Marketing in a downturn is something that many struggle with as they navigate expenses while still trying to drive revenue. The truth is that many small businesses neglect marketing momentum in an attempt to save money, but this is not the best business decision in the long run.

In reality, you must strike the balance between marketing momentum and budget during the financial downturn. Here are a few tips to implement.

1. Evaluate Your Resources

Both time and money are finite resources, and a recession can put a greater strain on them. Before you can master your time and budget effectively, you must nail down exactly what you have available.

We all live with an opportunity cap. There are limited hours per day, and the more time we spend on certain activities, the less we have for others. One resource you must assess is your time. Consider how much time you have for business activities, and the balance you need to strike between various activities.

Another consideration is the financial resources you have available. When the economy is strong and your revenue is predictable, you may be able to afford the same dollars for all marketing activities. Understandably, the economy can impact this. Based on how the recession will impact your industry and business, you may need to reduce the overall budget for marketing. Yet, what many don’t realize is that when you outsource marketing services, it can be 100% tax deductible for U.S. small businesses.

Additionally, some entrepreneurs and small business owners attempt to make up for this difference in budget with their time. They think that instead of paying someone to do the tasks, they can simply handle them alone. But remember time is also limited, and you must ensure it’s spent on high-level tasks that drive your business. Furthermore, you don’t want to sacrifice your lifestyle goals and end up struggling with burnout and chronic disease due to stress.

2. Take Moment for Self-Discovery

Ultimately, automating, delegating and outsourcing can help you implement marketing momentum during a recession. But before you dive into splitting up responsibilities, take time for self-discovery.

Which activities are you good at? Which do you enjoy? On the other hand, what are some that you do not like or enjoy? This is what self-discovery is all about. The key is to examine all of the various parts of your business, including marketing, to lay out which activities you should do and which you should outsource either internally or externally.

We advise our clients to work through the self-discovery activity to help them understand the best strategy for owning vs automating vs delegating. Ultimately, you’ll break down tasks into the following categories:

I’m good at it and I like it.
I’m good at it, but I don’t like it.
I’m not good at it, but I like it.
I’m not good at it, and I don’t like it.

This breakdown will help you then determine how to best complete all of the different tasks for your marketing momentum. As you may imagine, the ones you love and are good at are best to own, while the others should be automated and/or delegated as necessary.

3. Own vs Automate vs Delegate

Automating and delegating are two powerful ways to reduce costs during a recession, especially in light of layoffs. After breaking down where the common marketing momentum activities fall in the self-discovery activity, it’s time to determine which to own, which to automate, and which to delegate. Evaluate each task and determine how you’ll best handle it.

If it does not impede your ability to handle other critical business tasks, then it makes sense to “own” the tasks that you are good at and enjoy. However, if taking those tasks will cause you to lose time on other important ones, or eat into your lifestyle goals, then you still may need to implement automation or delegation.

Next, consider internal delegation. Does your internal team already have the resources for you to delegate the activity? Again, consider the skillset of your existing team, but also the time cap that they all have. If they can reasonably take the task without overworking or sacrificing time on something else important, then it makes sense to delegate internally.

But if your team does not have the skillset or time to handle the tasks, consider external delegation. Hiring additional team members or retaining employees is far more expensive than working with a complete digital marketing team. When delegating externally, you won’t need to worry about the cost of benefits packages. Furthermore, an experienced external team can help you implement key automation (like online booking appointments, chatbots, automated email campaigns, funnels, etc.) to further streamline your marketing momentum.

Keep Your Marketing Momentum Going During a Recession

The looming recession should not signal a backtrack from marketing momentum. Skipping out on marketing will only hurt your revenue and stifle business growth in the long run. On the contrary, you need to implement cost-effective marketing momentum to drive revenue during challenging times. Automating and outsourcing can help you balance marketing momentum and budget, but it all begins with taking a closer look at your skillset, interests, and internal resources.

Valeh Nazemoff

Valeh Nazemoff is an accomplished speaker, bestselling author, coach, and the founder of Engage 2 Engage, a digital marketing services company. She is passionate about improving people’s lives through strategic planning, collaborative teamwork, automation, and delegation. She removes the frustration, overwhelm, burnout, and stress that entrepreneurs and small businesses face in figuring out the various marketing elements so the focus remains on growing and scaling. Her books, Energize Your Marketing Momentum (2023), Supercharge Workforce Communication (2019), The Dance of the Business Mind (2017), and The Four Intelligences of the Business Mind (2014) aim to help businesses create order from chaos. She has also been featured in many publications such as Inc., Entrepreneur, SUCCESS, Fast Company, Huffington Post, and more.

Housing Prices Cooling in Once-Hot Markets

November 29, 2022/in News/by dulce

By Stephanie Mojica

“Pandemic boomtowns” such as Austin, Boise, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Sacramento are seeing downturns amidst a stagnating real estate market and an imminent recession, according to Forbes.com.

Typically, housing prices in these cities see consistent growth. However, double-digit percentage gains just aren’t happening anymore — especially with current mortgage rates. For example, Austin’s median price per square foot used to go up about 24% per year. This year, the figure was only 1.3%.

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, remote workers living in more expensive areas (especially the East Coast and the West Coast) flocked to Sun Belt destinations for high-quality living at a lower cost. As a result, home prices spiked by about 30%.

The dramatic drops in the stock and cryptocurrency markets are another contributing factor to investors seeing slowed growth in the value of their properties.

Sun Belt cities are far from the only ones seeing this problem, per Forbes.com. Even tech hubs such as San Jose, Oakland, and Seattle are no longer seeing double-digit gains in the value of residential properties.

Why 2022 is Still a Good Time to Invest in Real Estate

November 7, 2022/in Investing Tips, News/by dulce

Despite Inflation, Despite Interest Rates, Despite a Recession

“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
—Warren Buffett

By Jeff Roth

Why to Not Worry About Inflation

Let’s take a look at inflation historically.

Yes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is over 8%, and some say higher because they changed the way CPI is calculated over the years and does not include all items that may show inflation that consumers frequently need to buy.

However, real estate is one of the few assets that is performing well in this inflationary environment.

Values of properties have continued to go up higher than inflation. Buying investment real estate is using the power of inflation to your advantage because prices go higher with inflation because, sadly, the value of the dollar has gone down, and it takes more of those devalued dollars to buy the same house.

Even in 2022, prices are forecasted to go higher.

Rents have also increased greater than the rate of inflation in many places.

So, investing in real estate uses the power of inflation to your advantage.

What about high interest rates?

Why to Not Worry About Interest Rates

Yes, like inflation, interest rates are higher than we have seen in some time, and many would argue the rates were kept artificially low by the Federal Reserve.

So, historically speaking, how bad are interest rates?

Interest rates are elevated, but they still are not as high as they have been at some points in the nation’s history.

Also, if interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation (which they still are in many cases), then the effects of inflation mean you are paying back a long-term debt with dollars that are “worth less” over time because the value of the dollars you are paying the debt back with have been devalued.

Essentially, long-term debt, like mortgages, are an asset themselves in an inflationary environment.

Yet another reason to invest in 2022.

But what about a recession? Won’t that affect the housing market and real estate investments?

Why to Not Worry About a Recession

Home prices have gone up four of the last six recessions.
Part of the reason for this is the lack of housing supply to meet demand.

In fact, a recent study by Freddie Mac states there is a 3.8 million shortage of housing units to meet demand that would need to be built in the coming years in the U.S. https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-housing-coming-national-shortage-035900543.html

This new supply of housing units will need to be built while there is a shortage of skilled trade workers and lingering supply chain issues making material availability and costs unpredictable.

A good exercise, as an investor, is to ask where else can you invest your resources besides real estate and what returns you can expect.

What Are The Investment Alternatives?

There are many alternatives to investing in real estate. Let’s see how they are performing.

Wage Growth- Surely, with all the job shortages reported, there has to be strong wage growth. Actually, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from Sept.13, 2022, real average hourly earnings are down 2.8%, seasonally-adjusted, from August 2021 to August 2022. Did you get a 9% pay increase this year to stay ahead of inflation? If so, you are doing better than most. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

Stock Market Performance- Year-to-date total returns for the S&P Index is down 17.12% according to MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx

Bitcoin- Digital gold is down 57.76% year-to-date according to MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/cryptocurrency/btcusd

Gold- The original safe haven investment is down 6.82% year-to-date according to MarketWatch. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gold

Small Business Performance- According to an article from April 2022 entitled “41 Small Business Statistics: Everyone Should Know,” only 40% of small businesses are profitable. https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/small-business-statistics/#gref

So, if there really are no great alternatives to real estate investing in 2022 for the average investor, what is the cost for waiting and giving in to the media’s negative drumbeat about inflation, interest rates and a recession?

What Are The Opportunity Costs For Waiting To Invest in Real Estate?

There are always costs for not making a decision or making a different decision with your resources.

Let’s take a look at the lost wealth over the next 5 years in lost equity if you wait or fail to invest in 2022.

According to Keeping Current Matters and the Home Price Expectation Survey, you would lose out on $102,787 from appreciation alone.

Additionally, you have three more opportunity costs for not investing in real estate in 2022:

1. Interest rates may very well continue to increase.

2. The money you have to invest will lose purchasing power from inflation.

3. The tax benefits from owning real estate will not be realized.

So, the question is, why wait?

Why Wait to Buy Real Estate?

Real estate appreciation and rent increases are greater than the rate of inflation.

Interest rates are still below the rate of inflation and below historical highs.

Home prices have gone up during four of the last six recessions.

All other investment alternatives are losing value in 2022 on average.

Waiting to invest will cost you future projected appreciation, interest rates may continue to increase, the money you have to invest will continue to lose purchasing power, and the tax benefits from owning real estate will not be realized.

Why wait to buy real estate?

To your success!

Jeff Roth
Contributor

Jeff is the founder of Arbor Advising. Arbor Advising is a consultancy based in Ann Arbor, Michigan that is passionate about helping people reach their financial goals with real estate and real estate investing in Michigan with an established record of success in various market conditions. Jeff believes in the value of education and is a contributor to many local and national real estate publications and organizations. Reach out for a confidential consultation to review your specific goals and objectives and join the many satisfied clients that work with Arbor Advising.

You can connect with him at:
www.arboradvising.com
[email protected]
https://twitter.com/ArborAdvising
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100083113851229
https://www.linkedin.com/company/arbor-advising/?viewAsMember=true
https://www.instagram.com/arboradvising/

How Deferment of Mortgage Payments May Affect Borrowers in the Long Run

July 23, 2020/0 Comments/in Credit Crisis, Loans, Mortgage, News/by dulce

By Edward Brown

When Congress passed Section 4021 of the CARES Act in response to the effects of COVID-19, their intent was to help borrowers who were having problems making their mortgage payments. Little did Congress realize that they were potentially setting up borrowers for trouble in the future when it comes to credit worthiness as assessed by the lending community.

According to Mark Hanf, president of Pacific Private Money, “Section 4021 of the CARES Act contained a regulation that loan servicers “shall report the credit obligation or account for those participating in forbearance as current”. In other words, those participating in a forbearance program should not see their credit scores drop. However, there is a loophole that allows lenders to discover whether or not a borrower is actually making payments. It is the “comments” section of a credit report. The CARES Act does not mention the comments section of credit reports, and that’s where forbearance notations are going.” What borrowers are not being told is that any reference in a credit report to forbearance can be a Scarlet Letter for an applicant seeking a new mortgage, according to Kathleen Howley in an article she wrote in early May 2020.

According to Hanf, within a week of Howley’s article, his company received a loan request from a home buyer who was denied credit from a major bank for just this very situation. Although the bank sees the existing mortgage as “current” the forbearance has let the world know via the comment section that this borrower has requested a deferment. The major bank involved would most likely not deny the loan on its face due to the deferment, as this would violate the law; however, banks are notorious for coming up with a myriad of reasons for denying a loan and still stay within the guidelines set out for them.

Conventional lenders desire to have plain vanilla borrowers who pay back loans in a timely manner. When a borrower changes terms of the loan by requesting principal forgiveness or other aspects of the loan, the lenders generally do not usually extend credit again to these borrowers and can negatively affect the borrower’s ability to borrow again from unrelated lenders. Such is the case back during the Great Recession wherein some borrowers took advantage of the economic climate by asking their lender to reduce the principal of their loan [total forgiveness rather than just a deferment]. The borrowers may have gotten a reprieve, but the long-term effects may have been more drastic. Similarly, to when a borrower files bankruptcy. The borrower may get out of paying creditors, but their ability to borrow in the future is usually severely hampered.

In one case, back in 2009, during the heart of the Great Recession, one banker tells a story of how a wealthy borrower first asked for a principal loan reduction of $500,000 because his collateralized real estate had decreased and his request was granted. But, when this borrower was faced with the prospects of having this reduction reported on his credit report or the fact that he would have to inform any new lender that he requested a principal reduction [as this question is usually on bank applications], he voluntarily requested that the $500,000 abatement be reinstated. He decided his ability to borrow in the future was worth more than the $500,000 principal reduction.

Borrowers will have to decide if requesting deferments is worth the risk of potential future lending restrictions based upon the lender desire to lend to borrowers who choose to defer mortgage payments when the opportunity arises. Whoever said, “there’s no free lunch” must have been talking about these very situations.

Edward Brown

Edward Brown currently hosts two radio shows, The Best of Investing and Sports Econ 101. He is also in the Investor Relations department for Pacific Private Money, a private real estate lending company. Edward has published many articles in various financial magazines as well as been an expert on CNN, in addition to appearing as an expert witness and consultant in cases involving investments and analysis of financial statements and tax returns.

How These Co-Investors Continue Delivering High Returns Through Yet Another Recession

April 22, 2020/0 Comments/in Credit Crisis, News/by dulce

By Tim Houghten, Staff Writer

While some are hiding out and putting their heads in the sand amidst current events, Adam Levine and Daniel Edrei are among the few who are not only thriving, but growing as the market cycles and creates new opportunities.

Real Estate In 2020

The US real estate market kicked off big at the beginning of 2020. New record deals were made and many wealthy individuals and corporations went on a buying spree.

Interest rates were low, capital was the most plentiful it had been since 2006, and the bulls were running wild.

While experienced investors had forecast a new recession coming for years and were already prepared, the majority had their blinders on. Most were not ready for how fast the coronavirus pandemic hit the US economy.

Among the immediate impacts were disruption in the building material supply chain, bans on renting vacation properties, and talks of moratoriums on foreclosures. Quarantine and stay at home orders brought conditions not seen since in 80 years, since World War II. Perhaps even since the Spanish Flu 100 years ago.

Fortunately, we, and the real estate world have never been better equipped to weather something like this. Consider some in the past had to hide out in closets and between the walls for years just to survive with their lives. Now quarantine looks like luxury homes, flat screen TVs, 5G internet, Netflix, Amazon Prime on demand, and more than enough time to make endless memes.

These Moments That Distinguish New Leaders & Create Massive Wealth

Via Zoom we caught up with Adam Levine, Managing Partner of Levine Capital Management, and Daniel Edrei, Managing Partner of TCS Anika Homes.

It didn’t matter that one of them was in Philadelphia, another in New Jersey and our reporter in Florida. Those who are excited about this moment are finding ways to leap on the opportunities and keep on doing business.

Zoom just happens to be one of the tools they are using to keep communicating with investors, acquire deals, and to keep operating and signing new leases. Even during a complete lockdown.

It may prove to be one of the shortest recessions in recent history, but however long it lasts, it is just another turn in the cycle for experienced real estate investors.

It is in these moments that legends like John D. Rockefeller, Warren Buffett and Sam Zell are made. It is when there can be great gains in family wealth that lasts for generations.

Tragedy, Transition, Triage & Creating An Upward Trajectory For Your Finances

There is no question that the coronavirus and its personal and economic impact come with a lot of tragedy.

It is also time to look forward. Those who don’t will be reeling from this moment for a decade or more, while others are enjoying their best lives ever.

Hopefully, like Adam and Daniel you were already transitioning your investment strategies, asset allocation and portfolios long before COVID-19 reared its ugly head. If not, it is high time to triage your money. What do you need to sell before it is too late to save? What can you save with some extra care and attention? What will thrive and have immunity? Where do you put your energy and resources?

Since 2012 Adam Levine has been involved in well over 1,000 transactions, and has focused his funds on capital preservation and high returns in recession resilient, risk adjusted investments.

Daniel Edrei has been investing in real estate for over 25 years. He’s been through the dot com bust, 2008 and now the coronavirus pandemic. He is no stranger to recessions and how to invest through them. After 2008 he took stock of his debt investments loans he made. He realized that his higher LTV loans actually out-performed others where they had invested in teams with the strongest sponsors and operators. So, he began engaging in ‘dequity’ deals where they would share in the equity. Then moved into equity investing.

Seeing the coming recession Daniel said he had already been transitioning his funds and assets from luxury to workforce housing, well before it hit. They already have around 3,000 units under management, and are now well positioned to become the next Blackstone. The large multi-billion dollar hedge fund famous for creating Invitation Homes and B2RFinance, and buying tens of thousands of single family rentals in 2008.

Investing For Success

As of our Zoom interview, Adam and Daniel said they are actively investing, deploying capital, securing new leases with tenants and making acquisitions.

They continue to look for portfolios of 1- to 100 plus units to buy, and encourage those holding them to request a competitive bid from their latest fund. Today, they are mostly focused on row homes and workforce housing in Philadelphia. Though they may expand to cover Washington DC, Camden, NJ, Baltimore, MD and other surrounding areas.

While other investment providers have continuously been reducing the value of their offerings and yields over the past few years, Daniel says they are actually expecting to be able to deliver even better returns ahead. They already promote targeted returns of 15% to 24% (IRR). Access to better deals and better prices in 2020 may boost that even further.

What Is Co-Investing?

Now on the third fund for TCS Anika Homes, Daniel’s firm is sponsoring access to high performing income property portfolios. His direct LPs are typically sophisticated investors committing at least $200,000.

Desiring to make these investment opportunities more accessible without compromising on service, Adam and Levine Capital have partnered to co-invest in this fund. By investing through Levine Capital, accredited individual investors can still participate, but with minimum investments of just $10,000 to $20,000. This enables them to test the waters before committing even more capital, after experiencing the results for themselves.

This is an exciting opportunity. Especially for all those who thought they missed out on 2008, and the chance to create great wealth. Few expected it to come so soon. Just don’t sleep on the chance to invest while the market is ripe.

The Keys To Navigating The Market In Times Like This

1. Be Prepared, Move Quickly

Ideally investors were prepared in advance. Most weren’t. There is still a chance to shift asset allocation and reposition for success. Just don’t waste any more time.

2. Proven Relationships

While there are many seemingly great opportunities out there, the truth is that new entrants to real estate investing can be at a severe disadvantage if they are going the DIY route. It is going to be super hard to test out new contractors and property managers and build a trusted brand in these times. Fortunately, TCS Anika Homes was well ahead of this with a vertically integrated and owned ecosystem incorporating all facets of the business from brokerage to management and construction.

3. Partner With Veterans Who Have Been Through It Before

Even Adam says that despite graduating with a business degree, and a Masters in property management, theory and book knowledge only goes so far. He made his own greatest leaps and was able to learn the most and invest safely by partnering with others who have been through the trenches of previous cycles. This is in a large part driving what he is offering others today. Instead of packaging and selling his knowledge in a guru-like course or training program, he walks investors through his deals and co-invests side by side with them.

Find out more about these funds, recession resilient investments, and their founders at LevineCapital.com and www.TCSAnikaHomes.com.

Breaking News: This Week’s Historic Stock Surge Calms Investors

March 27, 2020/0 Comments/in Credit Crisis, News/by dulce

By Stephanie Mojica

After weeks of bad news, there is plenty of good news for real estate investors and realtors alike. On Wednesday, March 25, U.S. President Donald J. Trump as well as Senate and Congressional leaders reached an agreement on a $2 trillion stimulus package to hopefully stave off any recession due to the myriad problems caused by COVID-19.

The day before, Dow had its best day since 1933, according to The Los Angeles Times. Dow’s index increased by 11.4%.

Standard & Poor leaped 9.4%, which was the third-best day for gains since the 1940s. Because Standard & Poor is particularly important for 401(k)s, which impact an estimated 50% of American workers, according to CNBC.

Nasdaq jumped 8.1% as well.

According to Forbes, the unprecedented stimulus package will do the following:

• send $1,200 checks to most Americans;
• increase unemployment insurance benefits;
• set up a $500 billion loan program for small businesses in trouble;
• provide $130 billion for hospitals;
• inject $150 billion into state and local stimulus funds;
• loan $50 billion to affected airlines; and
• create a $500 billion fund for industries, cities, and states.

Yesterday’s latest statement from President Trump indicates he set Easter as an optimistic date for businesses to resume to full operation. These positive signs from Wall Street and the executive branch are increasing investor confidence in both the stock and real estate markets.

U.S. Market Plunges, Realty411 Experts: “Recession On the Way…”

March 17, 2020/0 Comments/in Credit Crisis/by dulce

by Stephanie Mojica

The Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to nearly zero on Sunday, March 15, sending real estate investors and the world at large into even more panic over the very real financial threats of the coronavirus aka COVID-19.

This of course drew the overall question of, is the United States now in a recession?

The opinions of experts interviewed by Realty411 on Monday, March 16, varied. However, the opinions all held one common thread — the economy of the United States and the world at large is in danger.

Gena Lofton, a Los Angeles-based investor, speaker, and author, said that she believes a recession officially began this first quarter of 2020, even before the interest rates were slashed.

“It’s highly likely that we will have low to no economic growth for the next two quarters, which is the definition of a recession,” Lofton said.

However, she noted that there are two more important questions for concerned parties to ask:

· When will it end?

· Will it be a “depression” or a recession?

“The answers to the above questions are dependent upon the severity (i.e., the depth) [of this economic downturn]; the length (i.e., the number of quarters); and the of fatalities as a result of the coronavirus — all of which will result in financial disasters for a large part of society,” Lofton said.

“It is highly probable that this will spill into 2021, as the money supply and supply chains have been broken for too long. For example, when an economy is chocked for this long without air (money) it is nearly impossible for it NOT to have a recession.

“The example I like to use is it’s like holding your breath underwater, if one does that for too long, they will either die or be unable to function when they do get air.”

According to Lofton, it is important for all investors and other concerned parties to deeply understand four factors:

· the money supply;

· the credit/bond market;

· supply chains; and

· economics in general

Bruce Norris, president of the Riverside, Calif.-based Norris Group and an active investor, hard money lender, and real estate educator with over 35 years of experience, said a recession is on its way.

“I think it’s [the Federal Reserve’s decision is] a reaction to realizing there’s a U.S. recession coming for sure,” Norris said. “A global one is likely as well.”

In response to a question about how serious COVID-19 is to the global economy in general, Norris said: “It’s [COVID-19 is] the biggest Black Swan event of our lifetime.”

According to Norris, the current situation is worse than the stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008 — but it could be of a shorter duration.

However, “depending on how high unemployment goes, this could impact renters’ ability to make rent,” Norris added.

Lloyd Segal, director of LAREIC (Los Angeles Real Estate Investor Club) — the largest real estate investing group in Los Angeles — also said a recession is on its way. However, he urged people not to panic.

“The best way to protect your real estate portfolio is not to sell!” Segal said. “No panic selling. Hold off on any activity for the next six months until the market stabilizes.

Sam Sadat, founder of Sam’s Real Estate Club in Los Angeles, Calif., feels that the recession for the economy is a recession, but not specifically for real estate investors. “As long as rates stay this low, we will have buyers.”

While panic selling is to be avoided, Sadat says this economic hurdle is the perfect time to re-adjust your portfolio and sell off the not-so-good properties to focus on the long-term winners.

“Save your money and get as much access to capital as you can. Look for bargains and invest in long term small multi-units,” Sadat adds.

It’s important for Realty411 readers to be aware that fortunes can be lost or made during economic turmoil, such as recessions.

“I’m sharing with my members and students that whenever the market goes through sudden upheavals, prices inevitably tumble,” says Segal, adding: “It happened after 9/11 and after SARS, H1N1, and Ebola. But it takes months, not weeks. So, get ready — but be judicious. There will be incredible opportunities in the coming months!”

Sadat says that right now noise will be coming at us from all sides, especially political hype during an election year. With this in mind, he emphasizes a holistic approach: “Keep to the center, sharpen your skills, and observe with maximum awareness of the moment. This too shall pass, and we will be just fine.”

Check back for more updates on this developing story.

Real Estate Investing: A Market Correction is Coming

January 29, 2020/0 Comments/in Investing Tips, Landlording, News/by dulce

By Tim Houghten

It’s inevitable. A market correction is coming. The market has been on a high for years now. In 2018 alone, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke a record high 15 times. If history has taught us anything, it’s that the market cannot sustain those highs for that long without a correction. Real estate markets across the country are still very hot. Even with the “cooling” that some markets are seeing, real estate prices are still well above records and competition is hot. “A cool-down has been predicted for over in a year in our local market. However, I’ve yet to see it. Sure there are some longer list times for sellers but properties are still selling in record time over asking price. It’s still a hot market,” says Eric Jones, Director of Sales and Marketing for Freedom Real Estate Group.

With all that being said, the question on every wise investor’s mind: how can I prepare myself for the next recession? The short answer, diversify. The long answer, diversify into buy and hold, long-term strategies.

“The short-game (fix and flip) is good. It’s instant return. But you get hit hard by the tax man. Buy and hold has some of the best tax advantages of any asset class,” Jones stated. “Depreciation, property taxes, mortgage insurance and more are all deductible expenses. Plus, with fix and flips, it’s simply not a long-term strategy. It’s not a way to build true wealth.”

To lessen the risk of any big swing in the market, the answer is to diversify your investment portfolio so all your eggs aren’t in one basket. The problem many individuals faced in 2008 was that most of their 401k or other retirement accounts were tied up in stocks and mutual funds. When the market tanked, so did their accounts. Now imagine if half of those funds were diversified into buy and hold real estate. For many, the outcome could have been vastly different. Here’s why.

The key to cash flowing, rental properties is that even during a down economy, they’re still cash flowing at the same amount. In some cases, even higher. Let’s look at it this way. If you were getting an 8% return on your stock investments, and the market crashes, you’re likely going to be reduced to 2%-4% if you are lucky. With rental properties, the rent amount stays the same. Your mortgage stays the same. Your property management fees, if you have them, stay the same. Essentially, if you were getting 8% returns on your property before, you’re still getting that. In a down economy, rents rarely go down. You may not be able to get rent increases during that time, but you will at least have a steady, consistent amount of cash coming in each month.

Rental properties tend to weather a down market in a consistent or even appreciating way. Not necessarily appreciating in value of the asset but appreciating in terms of cash flow being received. In a bad economy, a few things are happening. People simply aren’t buying homes. Credit is tighter. People are scared. The pocketbook is squeezed. Instead of purchasing, individuals and small families tend to continue renting during a recession. In addition, those that may be losing their homes to a foreclosure turn to single-family or duplex style rentals since it’s more private and familiar than a large apartment complex. Therefore, demand may actually increase in a down market which is a huge win for rental property owners.

With all that being said, a down market is definitely not the time to sell your rental properties. It’s a buy and hold strategy. During a down market, it is always best to hold these properties unless there is some absolute reason you must sell. When the market begins to climb again, then you may want to consider selling to upgrade to another investment property in a better neighborhood or better yet, purchase two and double your cash flow.

The best part of investing in rental properties is investors are wealth building while cash flowing. Very few investments offer this kind of opportunity. With a buy and hold strategy, you are receiving the benefit of monthly cash flow while also building a portfolio of tangible assets that will always – no matter the market – have value. “If you have the right plan, with a decent amount to invest, you can quickly scale up to a very healthy portfolio. We worked with a dentist who had $400k to invest and wanted to receive $10,000 a month in cash flow so he could retire. We built a plan and got him to his goal in three and a half years. He was able to retire early. However, not only did he keep receiving the cash flow each month, now he has tangible assets that he can sell off if he ever needed to and can pass on to his children and grandchildren,” Dani Lynn Robison, Co-Founder of Freedom Real Estate Group stated.

Something else to consider is how you are using the power of inflation to your advantage. Most 401k plans aren’t able to keep up with inflation. With the small returns and high managements fees, unless you are able to invest a lot in those funds, you may not even be able to keep up with the rate of inflation. However, with rental property, you are working with inflation to win in two ways. First, your mortgage payment doesn’t change. Let’s say when you purchased the property it was a $500 per month payment. If the market tanks, it’s still a $500 payment on a fixed rate loan. If the market is great, same payment. When the market is doing well, your asset, if all goes as planned, is increasing in value. You’re actually earning value on the asset while effectively reducing the value of the money you’re paying due to inflation. Second, you will likely be able to increase the rental amount between 1%-5% per year. That’s additional cash flow and value you will be receiving yearly.

Finally, it’s important to note that this is an investment and with any investment, there is inherent risk. No investment is guaranteed. However, real estate is one of the most proven, asset-based investment classes in history. Most millionaires were either made through investing in real estate or find large value in investing in real estate. As you explore this investment opportunity, look for markets that do not have super highs or super lows in market crashes (like 2008). States affected greatly were Florida, California and Arizona. One of the cities most notorious for being hit hard in the crash was Las Vegas. These may be markets to steer clear of. If a market crash occurs again, it may cause migration out of those areas resulting in rent losses. “Consider markets that may seem ‘boring’ like many in the Midwest including our market – Cincinnati and Dayton, Ohio. These have proven to weather a down economy and not have big drops in real estate values or population. These are the markets where you truly win.” Eric said.

Diversification is the key to weathering a down turn in the market. More specifically, investing in buy and hold rental properties not only is a proven strategy to survive and even thrive in a down market, but one that holds many positive attributes such as consistent cash flow, numerous tax benefits, and true wealth building.

Kathy’s 2019 Housing Forecast

August 7, 2019/0 Comments/in Investing Tips, IRAs, News/by dulce

By Kathy Fettke, Co-CEO of the Real Wealth Network

Welcome to my 2019 Housing Forecast! I’ve been doing these predictions for many years starting well before the housing crisis, when loans were easy and home prices only went “up.”

I was a mortgage broker back then, and knew something was very wrong in the lending world. I couldn’t understand how it made sense that I was able to give a loan to just about anyone… and I got my answer in2008 when the housing market crashed.

Since then, it’s become my passion to understand the politics behind economics, so that I’m never caught off guard again. Please note:these thoughts are my opinions only. and not to be construed as financial advice.

My theory on the housing market boils down to these three factors:

Real estate values are tied to jobs.

Jobs are tied to the economy.

The economy is tied to Federal Reserve policy and government regulations.

That’s a very simplified version of the housing market machine, but decisions by the Federal Reserve and the government can have a torpedo-like impact on real estate. So if you take a close look at what’s happening with the central bank and government policy, you might get a clue as to what is coming.

The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve attempts to regulate the economy by controlling the money supply. When there’s more money flowing, prices tend to increase. When there’s less liquidity, less money circulating, prices tend to decline. One of the ways the Fed controls the circulation of money is by raising or lowering the overnight lending rates –basically what it costs banks to borrow money and lend it out.

The Fed lowered these short-term interest rates to near zero levels after the Great Recession, in an attempt to jumpstart a flat-lined economy. It also bought bonds to keep interest rates low, and launched quantitative easing programs that essentially created money “out of thin air” for circulation.

It worked! With trillions of new, freshly minted dollars circulating, the economy came back to life, and a decade later, is booming.

But, a boom can also lead to a bubble, and bubbles burst. So the Fed regulates booms by lowering interest rates. One sign of an overheated economy is runaway inflation, so the Federal Reserve set 2% inflation as a benchmark for raising rates. Inflation hit that 2% mark in 2015, so the Fed began to reverse it’s easy money policies by raising rates. Since then, the Fed has raised rates nine times, including four rate hikes in 2018 alone.

This attempt to slow things down also worked!

It’s not surprising. Higher rates make everything more expensive, which can curb borrowing and spending. This effectively pulls the throttle on the economy and slows down inflation.

Plus, there may be another reason why the Fed has been steadily raising rates. The economy has been booming for a decade now, and many economists believe it’s now near its peak. Some are predicting a recession by 2020. One of the Federal Reserve’s arsenals for turning around a recession is to lower interest rates. But if rates are already low, the Fed has nowhere to go. It has to go up first so it can go down again in the future. Therefore, some say the Fed has been raising rates so that they can lower rates again next year.

Mortgage Rates

Higher short-term interest rates makes it more expensive to buy cars,take out equity loans, and use credit cards. They also make variable-rate mortgages higher, but they do not have a direct influence on long-term mortgage rates. In fact, in December when the Fed raised rates for the 4th time, long-term mortgage rates actually went down. Why?

Folders with the label Real Estate and Mortgage

Long-term rates follow the bond market more closely than the Fed Fund rate. When investors are confident, they invest in the stock market. When they are fearful, they seek the safety of bonds — specifically the 10-year Treasury note. Those same investors tend to flock to the safety of mortgage-backed securities. When more investors are buying, prices decline. So when there’s more fear in the market, long-term interest rates tend to soften.

The Fed’s December rate hike rattled the stock market, sending anxious investors to the safety of bonds. As a result, stocks took a sharp nose dive in December. More purchasers of bonds and mortgage-backed securities effectively lowered long-term mortgage rates. This could help boosts home sales in the Spring.

The Federal Government

When it comes to the federal government, we’ve seen major policy changes that are influencing the housing market. Several are contained in the massive tax reform package that cut taxes and changed the rules for deductions. By lowering the corporate tax rate to 21%, businesses have more money to reinvest and expand their workforce, which puts more people back to work.

One of the biggest benefits for real estate investors is the new pass-through rule that allows people with LLCs and similar business operations to take a 20% deduction. So there are big benefits for all those Mom and Pop landlords who operate as LLCs. The new rules also preserve the highly-prized 1031 exchange, which was at risk of being eliminated. The new Opportunity Zone tax break program is also part of that tax package.

Homeowners didn’t make out as well. They lost deductions for things like vacation homes and large mortgage payments, making homeownership, for some people, more expensive.

Low Unemployment

As I mentioned, those tax cuts were designed to lower the unemployment rate, which is now so low that it’s actually unhealthy for the economy. The data shows that we have more open positions than people looking for jobs. When there’s a shortage of workers, employers have to pay more. That extra expense is then passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices which contribute to inflation. If we start seeing higher prices, the Fed will be inclined to raise those short-term interest rates, which can also trigger other repercussions, like that stock market volatility.

What we need is workforce growth right now — not job growth. And this is a critical element for today’s economy because our workforce is actually shrinking. The U.S. birthrate has dropped to a 30-year low and continues to fall. Baby Boomers will be retiring in massive numbers, leaving more open positions in their wake. And there’s the debate over immigration, and the value of immigrants for jobs like farming and construction.

Economic and Housing Repercussions

So here are some of my predictions for 2019:

The GDP will slow down to around 2% from 3%, as the effects of those tax cuts wear off. High housing prices and interest rates could also help slow growth, along with trade tensions, domestic politics, and the current pullback by China. But, I don’t think we’ll see a recession, this year.

Unemployment will rise slightly due to a changing workforce that includes less corporate dollars for new jobs. An unemployment rate of4 to 6% is considered healthy, so a slightly higher jobless rate could be good for our economy.

Mortgage rates will remain relatively low. The Fed is expected to hold off on rate hikes during the first half of the year as it reassesses the economy. If we see another rate hike or two, it probably won’t take place until later this year.

Consumer debt will increase because it’s now more expensive to borrow money.

Demand for rentals will remain strong because homeownership has gotten more expensive.

Return to Normal Gains

We’ve been so spoiled over the last 10 years by double-digit gains. Investors need to start expecting more normal returns. Syndications will go back to 6% preferred returns, with an equity kicker on the back end that would bring the IRR to just over 10%. Unless you find that home run — like our development in Costa Rica, where we got the land cheap and received entitlements quickly such that we were able to get our glamping resort up and running, effectively lowering holding costs. We are expecting investors to receive an 18% return on that one. But these types of deals will be fewer and further between.

If you’re expecting another 2008 housing meltdown where you can pick up properties for pennies on the dollar, you may be waiting a long time.

There is No “One” Housing Market

We also have to remember that the national housing market isn’t just “one” housing market. Instead, it’s made up of thousands of diverse housing markets. The key to higher returns is finding emerging markets — those with job and population growth, but with real estate values still below their peak. These types of areas give investors both cash flow today and a strong chance of appreciation in the future — a win/win, whether a recession is coming or not.

What happens when we do get hit by another housing recession?

We have to remember, today’s housing scenario is very different than in 2008. Back then, loan underwriting was loose. Today, it’s still very tight. This time, most homeowners have equity in their home. Back then, they did not. Today, homeowners are locked into historically low interest rates. It would be much more expensive to sell or to rent, so they will hold onto their homes. Plus, Airbnb wasn’t prominent in 2008. Today, people can rent out rooms in order to make house payments. That brings me to my 7th and final prediction:

The housing market will remain on solid ground although price growth will be slower.

The recent slide in mortgage rates is corresponding to more activity from home buyers. That’s an indication that by keeping interest rates about where they are now, the housing market will thrive. We may see some turmoil at the high end of the housing market due to things like the tax law and stock market gyrations, but the housing market as a whole will likely see growth in more affordable markets.

The trick is to find the right markets. Real estate investors want to be in growth markets. And there are several good markets where that makes sense. The Real Wealth Network has identified 15 markets that can provide a good return on your investment. Some are better for appreciation. Others are better for cash flow. We have more information about those markets at our website www.realwealthnetwork.com

Kathy Fettke

Kathy Fettke is a best-selling author, longtime podcaster, and expert real estate investor. She’s the co-founder of RealWealth.com, a turnkey real estate company helping investors acquire turnkey rental properties, 1031 exchange replacement properties, and RealWealth Developments.com, a real estate syndications company, and connect with vetted real estate professionals.

She’s the author of Retire Rich with Rentals and Scaling Smart, and podcast host of The Real Wealth Show, Real Estate News for Investors, and co-host of BiggerPockets’ On the Market podcast. A 2025 HousingWire Woman of Influence, Kathy is a leading voice in rental property investing and real estate syndications.